The election of Dervis Eroglu as Turkish Cypriot president appears at first sight to deal a severe blow to the latest United Nations-sponsored efforts at solving the Cyprus problem.  But appearances can be deceptive.  There may, in fact, be an opportunity for a breakthrough.  Crucially, however, it will require the involvement of the European Union.

Eroglu, 72, is usually dubbed a “hardline nationalist” in the international media on account of his long-standing commitment to Turkish Cypriot independence.  This is to miss the point that the Turkish Cypriots are economically dependent on Turkey and Eroglu can hardly act in defiance of the government in Ankara.  It is in the Turks’ wider diplomatic interests to bring about a Cyprus settlement.  They have already made it plain to Eroglu that they expect him to behave constructively.

Nevertheless, Eroglu is clearly a different character to Mehmet Ali Talat, the outgoing president whom he defeated in Sunday’s election.  Talat has held 18 months of talks with Demetris Christofias, the Greek Cypriot president, in an attempt to break the deadlock in the Cyprus dispute.  Some progress has been made, but overall the talks have been slower and more difficult than hoped for.  In certain respects Cyprus has barely changed since 1974, when Turkey invaded the island’s north in response to a Greek-inspired coup aimed at unifying Cyprus with Greece.

How does the EU fit into the picture?  One important obstacle to a settlement has been the refusal of the Greek Cypriot-controlled government of Cyprus to permit the EU to establish direct trade links with the Turkish Cypriots.  This has had serious consequences for Turkey’s EU membership bid, because Ankara responded by refusing to allow Greek Cypriot traffic access to Turkish ports and airports.  The EU punished Turkey by freezing negotiations on eight of the 35 policy chapters that must be closed before a country can join the bloc.  As a result, Turkey’s accession talks are slowing to a crawl and Turkish public opinion is losing faith in the EU.

Fortunately, there now exists a chance to clean up this mess.  Because the EU’s newly adopted Lisbon treaty gives the European Parliament a voice in trade policy for the first time, the Commission is asking the assembly to approve a directive setting up trade links between the EU and the Turkish Cypriots.  If passed, the directive will go to EU national governments, which can adopt it if necessary by a qualified majority.  In other words, the Greek Cypriots will no longer be able to play their blocking game.

If all went well, one could imagine approval of the trade directive, a Turkish decision to open ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic, and a new impetus to Turkey’s EU membership talks.  In such circumstances, it would be easier to make progress on the core problems of the Cyprus dispute.  Does all this sound too good to be true?  Perhaps.  But that’s what they used to say about the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of apartheid in South Africa.  The Cyprus dispute is not insoluble – but a solution will require the EU to pull its weight.