With most of the work on the so-called “grand bargain” completed at last week’s European Union summit, all eyes will now focus on Portugal and whether it can make it until expected elections in May or June without resorting to a bail-out.

A new research note by Giles Moec, the head of European economic research at Deutsche Bank, nicely encapsulates the stakes facing Lisbon and summarises much of what we were hearing on the sidelines of last week’s summit – namely, that it would be in Portugal’s interest to take a bail-out, but the political turmoil may make it impossible.

As Moec notes, the date to watch is April 15, when the Portuguese government has about €4.3bn in outstanding debt it must refinance. With Portugal’s 10-year bonds hitting another euro-era high of 7.9 per cent on Monday – well above the 7 per cent the government has said it can handle – that April deadline is looking rather expensive. Read more