Category: Enlargement

So exciting are European Union summits that they sometimes distract attention from developments that, though perhaps less eye-catching, tell you a lot more about what’s going on in the EU.  For example, the latest two-day summit is concentrating on financial regulation, guarantees for Ireland’s sovereignty so that it can hold another referendum on the EU’s Lisbon treaty, and the nomination of José Manuel Barroso for a second term as European Commission president.

But a more interesting story was the breakdown on Thursday of EU-mediated talks between Slovenia and Croatia over their bilateral maritime border dispute.  This makes it virtually certain that Croatia will not complete its EU accession negotiations by the end of this year – the goal that Barroso and Croatia’s government had originally set themselves.

Croatia has been an official candidate for EU membership since 2005.  The slow pace of its accession talks is sending a very poor signal to the populations of other Balkan countries, such as Albania, the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia and Serbia.  They instinctively see their future in the EU, with its implicit promises of prosperity and security.

But with Croatia’s negotiations gummed up, they are starting to wonder when they will ever get their opportunity to join.  This has serious implications for the stability of the region, which was devastated by war and economic dislocation in the 1990s and is now suffering the impact of the world financial crisis and recession.

Slovenia started blocking Croatia’s accession talks last December in what looked like a blatant attempt to exploit the fact that it was already an EU member to triumph in the border dispute.  Most other EU countries were unhappy with Slovenia’s tactics.  Six months later, however, nothing much has changed.

Why have Slovenia’s EU partners not put Ljubljana under more pressure to find a solution?  One answer is that certain countries – one thinks of France, Germany and the Netherlands – are not especially enthusiastic about enlarging the EU at the moment.  At the very least, they want the Lisbon treaty to come into force before the EU admits any new members.

Given the uncertainty over the Lisbon treaty, it would seem that Slovenia has every incentive not to speed up the resolution of its border dispute with Croatia.  And so it is that EU enlargement – one of the bloc’s policies that has been shown to work very effectively over the past 30 years – falls by the wayside.  Not very clever.

The Czech hosts of Thursday’s European Union summit with six ex-Soviet states are not happy bunnies. The list of the EU leaders who couldn’t be bothered to show up for the Eastern Partnership event in Prague, a highlight of the Czechs’ six-month EU presidency, was embarrassingly long.

Let’s take them one by one.

Neither José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister, nor Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s premier, went to Prague. Berlusconi sent an extraordinarily low-level representative – Welfare Minister Maurizo Sacconi. It was almost an insult.

The best explanation I’ve heard for Berlusconi’s absence is that, once he found out other bigwigs wouldn’t be at the summit, he decided it would be beneath his dignity to go. I suppose it was a sort of blessing in disguise – it spared us an embarrassing photo like the one at the April G20 summit in London, where Berlusconi squeezed his beaming face between Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev.

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France stayed away from Prague, sending Prime Minister François Fillon in his place. Some think this was a tit-for-tat gesture prompted by the fact that Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek didn’t go to Paris last July for the launch of Sarkozy’s pet EU project, the Union for the Mediterranean.

Also absent from the Eastern Partnership “summit” – actually, let’s be honest and call it a “meeting” – were the leaders of Austria, Cyprus, Lithuania, Malta and Portugal. On the other side of the fence, the presidents of Belarus and Moldova weren’t there.

But the most glaring no-show of all was Prime Minister Gordon Brown of the UK. Foreign Secretary David Miliband went to Prague instead. Brown’s absence really stuck in the throats of the Czechs. In private, one embittered minister in Topolanek’s outgoing government used truly unprintable language to condemn Brown.

You see, the UK is supposed to be the big friend of the EU’s new member-states in central and eastern Europe. It is supposed to be the country most supportive of EU enlargement. Even if EU membership is a long way off or may never happen for countries such as Ukraine, the UK is supposed, at the very least, to favour closer relations with them.

You have to feel sorry for the Czechs. Perhaps someone should remind them that the UK’s attitude to eastern Europe and the EU has always been pretty cynical. The British have been consistent supporters of enlargement because a bigger EU, so they think, buries the nightmare of an ever more centralised EU ruled from Brussels.

In fact, to bury this nightmare is to fight yesterday’s war. There isn’t going to be an ever more centralised EU ruled from Brussels. This became clear between 2004 and 2007, when the EU expanded from a 15-nation group of mainly western European countries to a 27-nation bloc stretching across the entire continent .

Brown should have gone to Prague. Politically, it would have cost him nothing. It might even have won him some friends in useful places.

When Olli Rehn, the European Union’s enlargement commissioner, underwent his confirmation hearings in 2004, he was asked what goals he hoped to achieve by the end of his five-year spell in office. He named six: a) a EU of 27 member-states, b) Croatia’s entry negotiations in their final stage, c) other western Balkan states put on a EU path through association agreements, d) Turkey firmly on the European track, e) Kosovo’s status settled, and f) Cyprus reunified.

Speaking last Friday at a conference in Prague to mark the fifth anniversary of the EU’s “big bang” expansion from 15 to 25 (and later 27) members, Rehn claimed that he had met five of his six targets. Only Cyprus’s reunification was missing. But even on Cyprus it wasn’t all doom and gloom – talks on a comprehensive settlement had been going on since last September.

The mild-mannered and astute Rehn has been an impressive enlargement commissioner, in my view, but I beg to differ with him on how far his six goals have been met. Clearly, one target has been 100 per cent achieved: a 27-member EU. And, on a generous interpretation, you could say the association agreements reached with the western Balkan countries have indeed put them on a path to EU membership.

Some would caution, though, that one of these countries – Bosnia-Herzegovina – is, despite having secured its association accord, not really on a EU path at all. In fact, it sometimes seems on a quite different path – the path to self-destruction. So let’s say the western Balkan goal has been 90 per cent achieved.

As for Croatia, its entry talks should be in their final stages, but they are not, because Slovenia is blocking the process over a maritime border dispute. It now looks all but impossible for Croatia to wrap up its accession talks by the end of this year. Still, Croatia will probably join the EU in a few years’ time. Rehn’s goal is 75 per cent achieved.

Now the going gets tough. Is Turkey firmly on the European track? Alas, no. Opposition in parts of the EU to Turkey’s possible membership, and waning enthusiam for the EU in Turkey, place a huge question mark over whether Turkey will ever join the bloc. The membership talks are continuing, but in this case Rehn’s goal is only 20 per cent met.

Regarding Kosovo, I’d say it’s rash to call its status settled when two-thirds of the world’s countries, including five EU member-states, have refused to recognise the ex-Serbian province’s declaration of independence last year. Ask high-ranking European policymakers to bet money on whether Kosovo will be a sovereign state 50 years from now, and you do not get many takers. This goal is also only 20 per cent met.

Finally, there is Cyprus. Reunification seems a distant prospect, but Rehn is right to say that the current talks hold out some hope of progress. Ten per cent for effort.

Taken as a whole, that would give Rehn a score of 315 per cent on moving forward EU enlargement out of a theoretical maximum of 600 per cent. Given all the challenges he’s faced since 2004, I’d say that’s a strong performance – but 500 per cent it’s not.

The European Union is truly a weird and wonderful thing. Take the question of enlargement into the western Balkans (an area once known as Yugoslavia and Albania).

As is well-known, France, Germany and other western European countries have been reluctant to move the enlargement process forward as long as the EU’s Lisbon reform treaty remains blocked. Among their concerns is the fear that their electorates will not take kindly to the prospect of yet more eastern Europeans piling into the EU at a time of extraordinary economic crisis.

And yet Montenegro, which submitted an official application in December to join the EU, got an important boost this week. EU governments agreed to ask the European Commission to provide an opinion on Montenegro’s application. This is a crucial technical step forward in the process that leads to full EU membership.

But the western European governments that are nervous about enlargement were so anxious that this step should receive no publicity that the ministerial council which approved it was none other than … a meeting of EU fisheries ministers!

This is perfectly permissible under EU rules, by the way. But usually the Brussels-based media that cover the EU are not keeping their eyes peeled for this kind of artful manoeuvre.

So, on the one hand, one can say: “Well done, the EU, for helping to keep the enlargement process in motion.”

And on the other hand, one can say: “What pure political cowardice – no wonder the EU is in such trouble with its national electorates.”

Once upon a time a certain corner of Europe was known as Yugoslavia. Then it became former Yugoslavia or, for pointy-heads, the Yugoslav successor states. Now, with Slovenia in the European Union, Brussels has packaged what’s left of the old Yugoslavia with Albania and relabelled it “the western Balkans” – but the problems remain as intractably Yugoslav as ever.

Take Bosnia-Herzegovina, where EU foreign ministers today named Valentin Inzko, a high-ranking Austrian diplomat, as the bloc’s new Special Representative. Inzko will wear two hats – he was named the world’s High Representative for Bosnia last week. But it will be something of a miracle if he makes any progress towards bringing the Bosnian state off the international life support machine on which it has depended since the end of the 1992-95 civil war.

Insofar as the EU has any idea what to do, it seems to believe that the mutual suspicions that poison relations between Bosnian Muslims and Bosnian Serbs (and, to some extent, both communities’ relations with Bosnian Croats) will gradually disappear under the lure of eventual EU membership for the country. But as an excellent new report by the International Crisis Group points out, Bosnia is quite unlike the other former communist states to which the EU has – often successfully – applied this soothing strategy.

The essential problem is that the 1995 Dayton peace agreement did enough to end the war and suppress the temptation to start another one, but not enough to convince the Bosnian Muslims, Serbs and Croats that their only possible future lay in co-operating inside a single state. The Muslims were permitted to believe that one day they could assert themselves as Bosnia’s largest and strongest nationality, running a more centralised state. The Serbs were allowed to think that their sub-entity, Republika Srpska, might somehow be able to wriggle free of the rest of Bosnia and win independence.

Consequently, as Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia, Inzko’s predecessor as High Representative, once told me, politicians representing Bosnia’s three nationalities do not regard putting Bosnia on a firm path to EU membership as a priority. Rather, all the squabbles that preoccupied them in the 1980s and early 1990s are being played out yet again.

“Hardliners on all sides recognise that advancing toward Europe means giving up their ideal solutions: the Serbs know that as Bosnia draws closer to Brussels, it will be harder for them to break away; the Bosniaks fear that reducing RS [Republika Srpska] autonomy will be impossible,” the ICG report says.

The tone of the nationalist rhetoric in Bosnia these days reveals a lot about the kind of dysfunctional place it has become. Although shrill, it stops short of direct incitement to mass violence – in contrast to, say, the language used in 1991 and early 1992. At the same time, it is loud enough to show that Bosnia’s politicians, living under international protection for almost 14 years, have got used to the idea that they can shout all they like and it won’t have any practical consequences for them.

They are, in that sense, like irresponsible adolescents – with the EU like a bumbling aunt, unsure whether to punish, reward, lecture, or just run upstairs with her hands over her ears.

Last week I met Ivan Simonovic, justice minister of Croatia, whose bid to join the European Union in 2011 or 2012 depends to a great extent on how well the EU authorities judge the nation’s struggle against organised crime and corruption is going.  Simonovic, an energetic reformer of Croatia’s judicial system, told me that Croatia now had “a stronger system of prevention and suppression of organised crime than in many European Union countries”.

He didn’t mention any countries by name, but it may have been no coincidence that on the same day the European Commission published its latest reports on Bulgaria and Romania, easily the two most corruption-ridden EU member-states. The report on Bulgaria struck me as surprisingly mild, permitting Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev to describe it as “a clear, encouraging signal that we are on the right track”. Still, the report’s final sentence pulled no punches: “No major court decisions on high-profile cases of organised crime have been taken in recent months.”

The assessment of Romania was noticeably harsher. “The pace of progress noted in the Commission’s report of July 2008 has not been maintained… Some investigations of high-level cases remain blocked by the Romanian parliament… The capacity of the judicial system in Romania is still weak… It is important that the Romanian authorities regain momentum on judicial reform and the fight against corruption, so as to reverse certain backward movements of recent months.”

The corridors of power in Brussels still echo to the mutterings of policymakers who think Bulgaria and Romania, which became EU members in January 2007, were admitted too soon into the bloc. Once a country joins, so the argument goes, its fellow member-states and the EU institutions lose much of their leverage to make that new entrant behave better. True, but one could perhaps make the case that Bulgaria’s recent improvement – if that’s what it really is – owes something to the European Commission’s decision last year to withdraw or suspend EU funds worth several hundred million euros.

Overall, though, it is difficult to disagree with the latest verdict from Transparency International, the anti-corruption watchdog: “Since 2007, some anti-corruption measures have been launched by both countries, but results are far from satisfactory since these initiatives are limited to the EU’s minimal mandatory requirements and do not address the core corruption problems faced by Bulgaria and Romania.”

In his recent inaugural address in Washington, President Barack Obama said “the time has come to set aside childish things”. Evidently the leaders of the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia weren’t listening.

They have just done an unbelievably childish thing and named their section of a major north-south trans-European highway – known in Eurospeak as “Corridor 10″ – after Alexander the Great. In 2007, they renamed Skopje airport after him.

Now, as we know, Alexander certainly had a taste for travel. He extended his empire as far as India. But these persistent efforts to attach his name to modern European transport systems are, I’d say, beginning to stretch the point.

The Macedonians in Skopje think their state has a rightful claim on Alexander’s memory because of his connections to their territory in ancient times. But the authorities in Athens regard Alexander as an exclusively Greek warrior-hero.

The result: Greece has made clear it won’t pay one euro towards the cost of the Macedonian part of Corridor 10. And relations between Athens and Skopje are in yet another mess.

In Brussels, European Union officials are beside themselves with frustration as they watch this dispute jeopardise their carefully laid plans for the EU’s slow but steady enlargement into the Balkans. The argument over what former Yugoslav Macedonia should call itself has dragged on for almost 20 years, and a solution seems no closer now than when it first broke out.

Of course, the dispute arouses great passions on both sides - as shown in the posts to this story on BalkanInsight.com. But the way it’s being handled would be enough to make the great Alexander turn in his grave.

Greece argues that Skopje’s claim to the name Macedonia is an assault on Greece’s ancient Hellenic heritage, its identity and even its territory, since there is a northern Greek province also called Macedonia. For the former Yugoslav republic, however, it is vital to have a name that strengthens the identity of its people. Skopje perceives subtle threats not only from Greece but from Bulgaria, which questions whether there really is such a thing as a Macedonian nation and language, and Serbia, which denies the autonomy of the Macedonian church.

Last year, a widespread view in Brussels was that Greece had overplayed its hand when it blocked ex-Yugoslav Macedonia’s progress towards EU and Nato membership because of the name dispute. Now, however, it’s Skopje that’s in the EU’s black book, because of its dumb decision on renaming its bit of Corridor 10.

In an excellent new report, the International Crisis Group think-tank recommends that Skopje should state its readiness to accept a UN mediator’s proposal and use the name “Republic of Northern Macedonia” for international purposes. In return, Greece should drop its veto threats at Nato and the EU.

Common sense, really. But this is a commodity in short supply in some parts of the Balkans.

Turkey should almost be pleased. On Friday the European Union agreed to open two new “chapters”, or policy areas, in Turkey’s EU accession negotiations – on the free movement of capital and on information society and the media. The Czech Republic, which takes over the EU’s rotating presidency from France on January 1, hopes to open two more chapters during its six-month spell in charge.

So out of the 35 chapters that need to be completed before a country can join the EU, Turkey now has 10 open and could have 12 open by June 30. Whoopee! At this rate, all 35 will be open by some time in 2015. Except, of course, that certain western European governments have no intention of letting Turkey into the EU at all. Moreover, eight of Turkey’s negotiating chapters were frozen two years ago because the EU disapproves of Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to trade with Cyprus. All in all, far from moving steadily forwards, Turkey’s accession talks are going nowhere fast.

Still, at least Turkey is under fewer and fewer illusions about where things really stand. With Croatia, there is less certainty. Quarrels with Slovenia, its former fellow-Yugoslav republic, meant that the EU on Friday concluded only three chapters with Croatia and opened one more. Slovenia blocked further progress.

This was a bitter blow for Croatia, which had wanted to conclude five chapters, open 10, and race ahead to completing its EU entry talks by next December, with a view to becoming a full member-state in 2011. Instead, Croatia now has concluded only 7 of the 35 chapters, with another 15 open and 13 more still to be launched. Finishing these talks inside the next 12 months is starting to look like a very tall task.

Then there is Serbia. A report by the United Nations war crimes prosecutor this month made it clear that, even if Serbian co-operation with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague had improved, it ought to be even better. The arrest of Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb general accused of genocide, would do the trick. But as long as he remains at large, the Dutch government won’t lift its block on closer Serbian association with the EU.

Macedonia is stuck, too – over that wearisome dispute with Greece about what its name should be. As for Bosnia-Herzegovina, it will be something of an achievement if it hangs together as a state, never mind about joining the EU. And when Montenegro officially presented its membership application on Monday, there were mutterings on the EU side that this was much too premature.

Some people put these problems down to “enlargement fatigue” in the EU’s older member-states. I don’t know if they’re right. But it certainly looks as if, as far as concerns enlargement, everyone can settle down to a good long sleep in 2009.

The European Commission’s latest annual report on Turkey is striking for its kind words on Turkish foreign policy and its harsher language on internal Turkish political developments. It describes progress in some areas towards meeting the criteria for joining the European Union, and little or no progress in others.

In short, there is something for those who want Turkey one day to be in the EU, something for those who do not, and a lot for those who prefer to let the whole thing just drift along.

On foreign policy, the Commission welcomes Turkey’s mediation efforts between Israel and Syria. It praises President Abdullah Gül for breaking the ice in relations with Armenia by making the first visit to Yerevan by a Turkish head of state. It also recognises Turkey’s constructive role in proposing a Caucasus stability accord to ease regional tensions after Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

On domestic affairs, though, the tone is different. “Despite its strong political mandate, the government did not put forward a consistent and comprehensive programme of political reforms… Overall, there has been limited progress on public administration reform… No progress has been made on strengthening parliamentary oversight of the military budget… The government has failed to prepare a comprehensive anti-corruption strategy…” And so on.

The truth is that Turkey’s accession negotiations are stuck in a rut. They started in October 2005, but out of the 35 chapters, or policy areas, that must be completed before a candidate country can join, Turkey and the EU have opened only eight. Another eight were frozen in December 2006 because of Turkey’s refusal to open its trade to vessels from Cyprus. Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and other leaders scarcely disguise their opposition to full Turkish EU membership.

All this is taking its toll on Turkey’s traditionally pro-western political and business elites and on Turkish public opinion in general. Turkey has been diversifying its diplomatic and commercial relations and engaging more actively with its closest neighbours, with the Turkic world of Central Asia and, increasingly, with Russia.

Too many EU leaders give the impression of using a 30-year-old mental map of the world in which Turkey is just some turbulent, backward appendage to the south-eastern corner of Europe. In Ankara or Istanbul, such condescension does not go down well.

Among the lessons to be drawn from the Russian-Georgian war is that the next flashpoint between the European Union and Russia may turn out to be Ukraine. There is a particular risk of trouble over Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula where ethnic Russians are in the majority and where Russia’s Black Sea fleet has a 20-year lease on bases that is due to expire in 2017.

To help avert a crisis in Ukraine, the EU badly needs to come up with a convincing strategy for rescuing the country from the geopolitical no man’s land in which it has languished since the Soviet Union’s demise in 1991. Russia’s military intervention in Georgia underscores the Kremlin’s determination to rebuild its influence in former Soviet republics on its western and southern borders. Ukraine – with 46m people and a culture and history intimately connected to that of Russia – is the biggest prize of them all.

Unfortunately, the EU’s plans for Ukraine are at present anything but convincing. At an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels last month, the 27-nation bloc even found itself debating whether to state the obvious and call Ukraine a European country. The snag is that to do so would imply that Ukraine has the right to eventual EU membership, a prospect that some EU member-states can’t stomach.

EU and Ukrainian leaders are due to meet in the French town of Evian on September 9 and sign an association agreement on closer relations. But this accord will be deliberately ambiguous about whether or not it puts Ukraine on a track leading one day to EU accession.

A new report by the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank argues that the EU cannot afford any more delays in defining and deepening its ties with Ukraine. It proposes giving Ukraine access to the EU’s four freedoms (freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital) and a roadmap for visa-free travel. It advises the EU to commit itself to consulting and assisting Ukraine in the event of a challenge to the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It recommends support for Ukraine’s efforts to secure the peaceful withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea fleet from Crimea.

Above all, the report advocates that the Ukraine should be offered a “clearer perspective” towards a Nato membership action plan, and states that the EU should recognise Ukraine’s right to join the EU. None of these steps would be intended as a provocation to Russia, whose sheer size and regional weight leave the EU with no choice but to pursue a policy of long-term diplomatic and commercial engagement with Moscow.

The report’s recommendations make a lot of sense. However, they may overstate the EU’s ability to apply its famed “soft power” in a country that is right on Russia’s doorstep and permeated with Russian influence. Equally, they may underestimate Russia’s probable response to any hint that Ukraine is drawing close to Nato.

All in all, one has to fear that a crisis in Ukraine, like this month’s fighting in Georgia, will flare up long before the EU’s member-states have forged a consensus on what they want to do.

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Peter Spiegel is the FT's Brussels bureau chief. He returned to the FT in August 2010 after spending five years covering foreign policy and national security issues from Washington for the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times, focusing on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He first joined the FT in 1999 covering business regulation and corporate crime in its Washington bureau, before spending four years covering military affairs and the defence industry in London and Washington.

Joshua Chaffin is one of the FT's EU correspondents, covering areas including policies on trade, the environment and energy. He has worked in the FT's Brussels bureau since late 2008 and before that was an FT correspondent in New York and Washington DC.

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Stanley Pignal is Brussels correspondent for the Financial Times, covering EU justice, home affairs, social developments, telecoms and the Benelux region. He joined the bureau in January 2009, having previously worked for the FT as a corporate reporter in London.

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