Fiscal policy

German chancellor Angela Merkel during a press conference Thursday

Our friends and rivals over at The Daily Telegraph have gotten their hands on an interesting document from the German government detailing its proposals for EU treaty change, and have helpfully posted it online (with an English translation by the Open Europe think thank).

Although the Telegraph focuses on its implications for Britain, there is a significant amount of detail on how Berlin would like to change eurozone economic governance, including yet another stab at enshrining bondholder “haircuts” in the EU treaties.

For those who haven’t followed the debate closely, there is now a closed-door fight going on about whether Greece really will be the only country that sees its bondholders pushed into losses – as the eurozone’s leaders have repeatedly insisted in their summit conclusions – or whether the bloc’s new €500bn rescue fund, which could come into place as early as next year, should allow for organised defaults.

Although almost all EU institutions – including the European Commission and European Central Bank – want to make explicit Greece was a one-off, the German paper makes clear they want to keep the door open. Read more

A tram passes the euro sign sculpture in front of the European Central Bank ( ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg

Welcome to our continuing coverage of the eurozone crisis. All times are London time. By Tom Burgis and John Aglionby on the news desk in London, with contributions from FT correspondents around the world. This post should update automatically ever few minutes, but it may take longer on mobile devices.

The turmoil in the eurozone has taken a troubling turn in recent days, with anxiety spreading from Europe’s periphery to its “core” countries. Even as Italy’s Mario Monti readies his economic agenda to be presented today, investors are looking at France, the Netherlands and Austria with increasing unease and wondering whether the ECB might yet ride to the rescue. Over in Greece, today is the anniversiary of 1973′s mass student protests – with demonstrators once more planning to take to the streets. And the bond markets are showing ever more strain, with today’s Spanish bond auction likely to test sentiment still further. We’ll bring you all the latest as it happens.

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Mario Monti arrives to unveil his new government at the Quirinale Palace in Rome. Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images 

Mario Monti arrives to unveil his new government at the Quirinale Palace in Rome. Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

 

Welcome back to the FT’s rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis. By Esther Bintliff and John Aglionby on the world news desk, with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

This post will update automatically every few minutes but could take longer on mobile devices.

Europe’s two new technocratic prime ministers should consolidate their respective grips on power today. Lucas Papademos, in Greece, is expected to win a confidence vote in parliament, while Mario Monti, his Italian counterpart, announces his new cabinet. Eyes will not be far from the markets either, following yesterday’s bruising ride.

 

12.52: Here’s the full list of the new Italian cabinet, courtesy of our reporter Giulia Segreti who is at the Quirinale palace in Rome:

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Mario Monti, Italian prime minister designate – Image Getty

Welcome back to the FT’s live coverage of the eurozone crisis and the global fallout. By John Aglionby and Esther Bintliff in London with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

This post should update every few minutes but might take longer on mobile devices.

Are calm waters finally visible on the horizon of the eurozone? Perhaps – for now. Mario Monti’s first full day as Italian prime minister designate will be marked by a bond auction and his efforts to form a government. A confidence debate starts in Greece on Lucas Papademos’s government. And German chancellor Angela Merkel holds her Christian Democratic Union party annual conference in Leipzig.

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Euro drachma

Josh Chaffin’s piece from the FT’s analysis page: Christos Chanos sits in a conference room at his family’s sun umbrella business in Athens and ponders one of the most pressing questions confronting his crisis-hit nation: should Greece leave the euro?

The head of a company founded by his grandfather in the ancient market stalls of the Monastiraki neighbourhood, he has first-hand experience weathering the destabilising effects of a debt crisis that has held Greece in its grip for nearly two years.

He understands the argument that reintroducing the drachma – which Greece swapped for the euro in 2001 – would enable the country to lower its costs and regain competitiveness. But, like many others, he is reluctant to go down that road. “If you ask me if we never should have entered, I could have a long discussion,” says Mr Chanos. “But at this point, I think it would be a huge distraction. What would happen the day after?”

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A screen in Hong Kong displaying the Hang Seng index’s turbulent day today. Image AP

Welcome back to the FT’s coverage of the eurozone crisis and its global fallout. Curated by John Aglionby, Tom Burgis and Orla Ryan on the news desk in London and with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

This post should update every few minutes, but could take longer on mobile devices.

Market reaction to events in Italy shows that the crisis is now truly global. Markets are looking for more clarity from Rome on timings, particularly of the austerity vote. Meanwhile the saga of finding a new Greek prime minister rumbles on.

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Silvio Berlusconi – shutting one’s eyes won’t make the problems go away. Image AFP/Getty

Welcome back to the FT’s coverage of the eurozone crisis. Curated by John Aglionby, Tom Burgis and David Crouch on the news desk in London, with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

Greece really is expected to get a new prime minister today – 48 hours later than expected. Italy, well who knows what’s going to happen there as the EU inspectors arrive to comb through the nation’s finances and bond yields surge … And policymakers and financiers are becoming increasingly concerned about the impact of the crisis on global liquidity levels.

The posts will update automatically every few minutes but could take longer on mobile devices.

 

11.31: Dinmore of the FT, his ear to the ground in Rome, says Italy’s out-of-control bond yields are focusing minds.

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Welcome back to the FT’s live coverage of the eurozone crisis. Run by John Aglionby, Tom Burgis and Orla Ryan on the news desk in London, with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

This post should update every few minutes, although it could take longer on mobile devices.

How high will Italian bond yields have to go before Silvio Berlusconi decides he can no longer survive as prime minister? Or for his immensely loyal supporters to finally desert him? Will Greece get a new prime minister today? If so, who will accept the Herculean challenge of running the country?

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Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister, at last week's G20 summit in Cannes

At the European Commission’s regular mid-day press briefing today, Amadeu Altafaj-Tardio, the spokesman for economic issues, said the Commission’s Italian monitoring team is expected to arrive this week. After agreement Friday in Cannes, the International Monetary Fund will be sending its own team at the end of the month. Read more

Silvio Berlusconi

Welcome to the FT’s live blog on the eurozone crisis. Curated by Orla Ryan and John Aglionby on the world news desk with contributions from correspondents around the world. In Italy, doubts have emerged that Silvio Berlusconi can remain in power as the country’s borrowing costs continues to rise. Greece is expected to name a new leader after its two largest political parties late on Sunday decided to form a government of national unity. George Papandreou will stand down as prime minister.

This post should update automatically every few minutes, although it may take longer on mobile devices.

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George Papandreou Photo: AFP/Getty

Welcome to the FT’s live blog on the eurozone crisis.

Curated by John Aglionby and Orla Ryan on the world news desk with contributions from correspondents around the world. This post will update every few minutes though it may take longer on a mobile device.

George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, caused a major surprise on Monday night and re-opened the eurozone sovereign debt crisis when he announced a public referendum to approve the second bail-out thrashed out last week by European leaders. Public opinion polls show a majority of Greeks oppose the bail-out. The PM will hold an emergency cabinet meeting at 4pm UK time on Tuesday. Parliamentary debate on the proposal starts in Athens on Wednesday.

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Anti-austerity protesters in Athens hold up a Greek flag that says "not for sale" on Friday.

Thanks to some help from the European Commission, we have a bit more clarity on where European leaders will be spending the new €130bn in Greek bail-out aid. But the new data we received makes all the more clear that a huge amount is dependant on the still-to-be negotiated details of the 50 per cent Greek bondholder haircut deal, which may not be completed until the end of the year.

Just to remind readers where the confusion lies, of the €130bn in new funding, only €30bn was officially earmarked in last week’s summit communiqué – and that money will go for “sweeteners” to current bondholders so they’ll participate in a bond-swap programme. If they are going to take a 50 per cent cut in the face value of their bonds, they insisted on getting something else in return, and this was the price.

Of the remaining €100bn, fully €30bn will go to bank recapitalisations, not then €20bn we assumed last week. Although EU banking authorities have called for €30bn in new capital for Greek banks, officials tell us this is in addition to the €10bn provided in the first €110bn Greek bail-out.

Which leaves us with only €70bn to actually run the Greek government for the next three years. How did European authorities come to this number? That requires even more detective work, after the jump. Read more

Greek prime minister George Papandreou, right, with his counterparts at Wednesday's summit

Thursday’s early-morning deal on a new €130bn Greek bail-out is different in magnitude and in kind from the July €109bn programme it replaces, but in one respect they’re very similar – European officials have had a hard time explaining what, exactly, the money is for.

The one thing they have announced is that €30bn of it will go to so-called “sweeteners” to convince Greek bondholders to accept 50 per cent haircuts on the face value of their bonds.

How this would work has yet to be negotiated, but in the July plan, such sweeteners were used to create a collateral pool for new, gold-plated Greek bonds that could be used in a bond swap programme. In order to convince bondholders to trade in their current bonds that are about to come due for new bonds that don’t come due for 30 years, these new bonds needed to be extra safe. The collateral “sweeteners” were the means to do that.

How is the remaining €100bn in the new €130bn Greek bail-out going to be spent? A little detective work after the jump. Read more

Welcome back to our continuing coverage of the eurozone crisis. In the early hours of the morning, eurozone leaders emerged from their summit in Brussels with a deal designed to stem the sovereign debt crisis. The markets seem pleased but big questions on the details remain. We’ll bring you reactions, news and commentary as we get it throughout the day.

All times are London time. By Tom Burgis on the news desk in London, with contributions from FT correspondents around the world. This post should update automatically every few minutes, but it may take longer on mobile devices.

14.33: In Brussels, EU officials and journalists are walking around in a daze following the euro-summit’s 6am finish on Thursday morning, reports the FT’s Stanley Pignal:

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Welcome back to our continuing coverage of the eurozone crisis as we head into the evening. Europe’s leaders have gathered in Brussels to try to deliver a solution to the sovereign debt crisis. It has been nervy day in the markets and national capitals – all of which you can read about on our live coverage from earlier on. Tonight we should discover whether Europe’s leaders can overcome their differences and chart a course towards recovery or whether they will once again fail to reach a deal. We’ll bring you news and commentary as we get it.

All times are London time. By Tom Burgis on the world news desk in London, with contributions from FT correspondents around the world. This post should update automatically every few minutes, but it may take longer on mobile devices.

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Welcome to our continuing coverage of the eurozone crisis. Today’s summit in Brussels could, in years to come, be viewed as a turning point in the eurozone crisis. Or, it could be just one more extended meeting at which policymakers tried – and failed – to agree on a plan big enough to calm the storm in Europe’s sovereign debt markets. We’ll bring you news and commentary throughout the day.

All times are London time. By Esther Bintliff on the world news desk in London, with contributions from FT correspondents around the world. This post should update automatically every few minutes, but it may take longer on mobile devices.

13.05: In case you want to know the timetable for tonight’s summit, it’s here. Ominous small print: “The programme may be modified in light of progress of the meeting.”

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Juncker, left, heads Eurogroup of 17 euro finance ministers. Rostowski, right, the Ecofin of all 27.

UPDATE 2: The Polish presidency has just made the official announcement. They say the cancellation allows heads of government to decide the things finance ministers were originally going to tackle. Despite negative market reaction to the news, several EU diplomats insist this is a diplomatic miscue by the Poles rather than a sign of things to come.

UPDATE: European diplomat confirms meeting of 27 EU finance ministers has been cancelled.

It’s getting uncomfortably close to crunch time for eurozone leaders, with just over 24 hours left before the summit-to-end-all-summits. But will they actually be able to agree on the big euro rescue plan? A letter sent last night by Jacek Rostowski, the Polish finance minister, makes it seem doubtful.

Since Poland currently holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, Rostowski is charged with convening a meeting of all 27 EU finance ministers tomorrow ahead of the big summit to lay the groundwork for a final agreement.

But officials tell Brussels Blog the so-called “Ecofin” council meeting is now likely off, and in a letter to Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who chairs the group of 17 eurozone finance ministers, Rostowski makes it appear the cancellation is due to a failure to agree on outstanding issues. Read more

France and Germany may be divided over the key issues on the agenda of today’s European Union summit. But President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel have found common ground in the need to hammer Italy over its heavy debt load.

The leaders of the EU’s biggest and most powerful member states called in Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister, this morning for a pre-summit tongue-lashing. The message they delivered, according to one diplomat familiar with the discussion, was that Italy must deliver “specific and convincing reform measures soon.” They communicated a similar message to Berlusconi at a gathering on Saturday evening held by the centre-right European People’s Party.

Sarkozy also expressed his displeasure with Italy’s refusal to make way for a Frenchman on the European central bank’s executive board, according to the diplomat. France is due to lose its seat when Jean-Claude Trichet steps down as ECB president at the end of the month to be replaced by Mario Draghi, the outgoing president of the Bank of Italy. Berlusconi infuriated the French this week when he declined to free up a seat on the powerful decision-making committee by refusing to name current board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi as Draghi’s replacement. Read more

French president Nicolas Sarkozy arrives at the summit this morning.

The big European Union summit will be divided in two parts today, with all 27 EU leaders meeting in the morning before the session is narrowed to the 17 members of the eurozone in the afternoon.

The Brussels Blog has obtained a copy of the 12-page draft of the morning gathering’s communiqué, circulated to summiteers this morning, and unless things change at the meeting, it looks like there will be no final decision on the one thing the 27 had hoped to finish today – a plan to recapitalise Europe’s banks.

The draft “welcomes progress made” by EU finance ministers during their 10-hour meeting on Saturday, but says the work will not be officially signed off until another meeting on Wednesday – the first official acknowledgement that leaders from all 27 EU countries (and not just the eurozone) will have to meet again next week. Whether that meeting will be the heads of all 27 governments or just their finance ministers remains to be seen. Read more

 

People may be forgiven for wondering what European leaders will do this weekend since most decision-making has been postponed. (See 10.25 entry) Photo Reuters

Welcome to our coverage of the eurozone crisis. Compiled by John Aglionby on the world news desk in London, with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are London time. The post should update automatically every few minutes.

This weekend was meant to be the moment European Union leaders came together to end the eurozone debt crisis. But continuing differences between France and Germany, primarily over how to boost the firepower of the €440bn eurozone rescue fund, mean another summit will be required. As one European official said: “We’ve lost the main parachute and we’re on the reserve chute and we’re not sure that will even work.”

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