By Richard Milne

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Duncan Robinson

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Uncertainty abounds. Mr Trump has veered from dismissing Nato to saying he backs it. “Let’s put it this way: people are attached to Twitter, and it changes every half hour,” said a senior Nato diplomat. Still, allies were reassured that Gen Mattis and Rex Tillerson, the new secretary of state, expressed support for the organisation at their Senate confirmation hearings. Read more

Britain’s Article 50 notification could be less than a month away. Theresa May has outfoxed her opponents in the first parliamentary skirmishes. Unexpected delays are always possible in the Lords. But it looks like Downing Street may meet its March 9 target for notifying Brexit, just in time for the European Council summit that day.

Britain’s prime minister will have the chance to explain herself in person (rather than just break up by fax/letter/email or text message). And the EU-27 will take their cue. Diplomats are already preparing a special EU-27 summit in early April to set “guidelines” for Brexit talks. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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Something is stirring in Luxembourg. In the space of a few months, the European Court of Justice could turn the EU’s refugee policy on its head, fundamentally reshape the way Muslims are treated in Europe and set the parameters for any post-Brexit trade deal. Through this handful of cases, the court will demonstrate its extraordinary and growing influence. Read more

Jim Brunsden

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After months out of the limelight, Greece has crept back up financial traders’ worry list. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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It was also fake. Read more

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How do they get to €60bn? The Commission’s arguments are becoming clearer, but it remains cagey about the precise numbers (EU-27 officials may be told more today when they meet on this subject). From some (often patchy) public data, I’ve estimated the net €60bn bill consists of: €10bn for pension promises to EU officials; around €36bn from unpaid spending commitments; and €27bn of other liabilities and promises of structural funding that will be discharged between 2019-2023. From that is deducted roughly €12bn of UK receipts, from its share of assets and commitments. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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The deal has shades of the close – and controversial – links between Italy and Libya during the Colonel Gaddafi regime that had the effect of stemming the number of people making the deadly trip in the central Mediterranean. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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Brexit has “exploded a bomb” under the EU’s family finances, warned the UK’s former permanent representative Sir Ivan Rogers in parliament yesterday. How much Britain has to pay towards the damage will be a key part of the split. Read more

Jim Brunsden

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This morning, for the second week running, satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné is hitting breakfast tables around France with revelations regarding Mr Fillon’s family finances. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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Offering the Brits (and the Brits alone) a loophole made things worse. While Mr Trump may be a novelty, it is easy to forget that testy relations between Washington and Brussels pre-Trump are nothing new. Read more

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Just ask Theresa May. On Friday the British prime minister felt she had pulled off a diplomatic miracle in Washington – literally glad-handing Mr Trump while still leaving with a nod of support for Nato and a semblance of dignity. Read more

Alan Beattie

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Chlorinated chicken is not, you would think, the stuff of transatlantic trade battles. But one of the more esoteric points of dispute between the EU and US down the years may well re-emerge between the US and UK. Read more

James Politi

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Not only is Mr Renzi still reeling from having to resign as prime minister after losing a constitutional referendum in December, but the country’s judiciary has now struck down a key aspect of his flagship electoral reform, passed with much fanfare in 2015. Specifically, the court said that the idea of a run-off between the two leading parties, which was central to the law because it ensured that the winner would be able to govern with a comfortable majority in the lower chamber of parliament, is unconstitutional. What is left is a single-ballot contest in which seats in a general election will be apportioned by proportional representation, with one unlikely exception: if a party wins more than 40 per cent of the vote, it will gain enough bonus seats to govern with an absolute majority. For anyone familiar with Italian politics – where coalitions of unstable governments have been the name of the game for decades – this looks a lot like the return to old days, for better or for worse. But while the ruling looks on paper like a setback for Mr Renzi, he may actually welcome the the blow to his legacy as it could, ironically, help him return to power. The key point is that the decision makes it more likely that Italian elections will be called earlier than expected, possibly as soon as June instead of the scheduled date of February 2018. And since Mr Renzi – arguably still Italy’s most influential politician – has been calling for early elections in order to attempt a comeback as prime minister, this would seem to fit his political goals. The main reason early elections are potentially closer is that the judges made the electoral law in the lower chamber more consistent with the one in the Senate, Italy’s upper house. Many political leaders, beginning with Sergio Mattarella, Italy’s president, see such a reconciliation as a prerequisite for any general election. The other reason early elections are closer is because the magistrates said the ruling could be applied immediately, without any intervention of the parliament, which would have meant drawn-out negotiations and delays. Other fans of early elections who may be cheering at the ruling are the populist Five Star Movement and Northern League, who have ardently called for snap polls. On the other side of the divide is Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, which wants to slow things down, along with Mr Mattarella and Paolo Gentiloni, the current prime minister who is loyal to Mr Renzi but may want to spend some more time at the tiller. They may still prevail. Ultimately, the decision on early elections will be made by Mr Mattarella, together with Mr Renzi, based on their calculation of the odds of locking the Five Star Movement out of power, even if means a “Grande Coalizione” with Mr Berlusconi. At this juncture, their chance of that are pretty high. But whether that still holds a year from now is a gamble they may not want to take. Email: james.politi@ft.com Twitter:@JamesPoliti Read more

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That hasn’t stopped the centre-left Social Democrats anointing him as their candidate for chancellor in this September’s Bundestag election, in a surprise move that dramatically reorders Germany’s normally static political landscape. Read more

Jim Brunsden

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The parliament of French-speaking Wallonia, a region of Belgium, last year came perilously close to derailing years of work on an EU-Canada trade deal that may turn out to be the main achievement of Ms Malmström’s time in office. Read more

Jim Brunsden

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Now he is the runner up in the first round of the Socialist Party’s primary contest, behind a man who once resigned in protest at his polices, and who has promised to repeal his government’s signature labour law. Read more

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Now for the main event. Donald Trump finally takes office today after a noisy transition that served only to amplify many of the most unsettling questions that surround his incoming administration. Read more

Duncan Robinson

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But they are still trying. EU ambassadors will today discuss a so-called “line of protection”, where Libyan authorities – with “strong and lasting” EU support – will intercept people before they leave territorial waters, according to notes circulated before the meeting. Read more