Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Nato's secretary general, before a meeting Sunday on Ukraine
Even though Ukraine is not a member of Nato – and therefore is not covered by the alliance’s mutual defence treaty – the west has signed a series of bilateral agreements with Kiev over the last 20 years in which it has agreed to help protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Given the rapidly escalating events inside Ukraine, such international agreements may seem a mere legal nicety. But many in Ukraine believed the pacts provided the country with a measure of security, and they will still help guide the west’s response to Russian activities.
Perhaps just as importantly, leaders in other capitals in the region who either have or are contemplating similar agreements with the west – be they association agreements with the EU or partnership action plans with Nato – are surely watching to see if these pacts are worth the paper they’re written on.
In the White House’s statement after President Barack Obama’s phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Saturday, Washington referred to several of those agreements, starting with the so-called “Budapest Memorandum”. Here’s a quick primer on the international texts that govern the west’s – and, in many cases, Russia’s – relations with Ukraine.
A slide from a January 2014 investor presentation by the Ukrainian finance ministry
First of all, just how much financial trouble is Ukraine in?
Almost all major economic powers were out on Monday saying that any aid package would have to wait for a full International Monetary Fund programme. But such “stand-by arrangements” can take months to negotiate – and IMF officials have made clear they want a new government firmly in place before those negotiations can begin, so that may mean we’re waiting until after May’s presidential elections.
So will Ukraine make it until then? Analysts are dubious, and the Ukrainian finance ministry’s declaration on Monday that they are seeking bilateral loans from the US and Poland in the next week or two certainly implies that they’re not sure they can make it that long either.
One key metric to watch is Ukraine’s foreign currency reserves, which for those not seeped in international finance is about as close to a national bank account for emerging market economies as you can get. If Ukraine runs out of reserves of dollars, it can’t pay any of its bills to foreign creditors – such as bondholders or gas providers – and essentially goes broke. Read more
Barroso, right, meets with UK prime minister David Cameron at Downing Street last year.
José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, caused quite a kerfuffle in London at the weekend when he said on one of Britain’s most-watched political chat shows that Scotland would find it “extremely difficult, if not impossible” to rejoin the EU if it were to secede from the UK.
But for those who have been following the debate closely, Barroso’s position had been telegraphed long before – in fact, it has been the stated European Commission view for nearly a decade.
In 2004, then-Commission president Romano Prodi, in a statement published in the Official Journal of the European Union – where all laws and decisions must be published before they can take legal effect – made clear that any region that decided to declare independence must reapply for EU membership and face the same kind of unanimous agreement as any other applicant: Read more
Workers shutter a branch of Laiki Bank, which was closed under Cyprus' €10bn bailout last year
For those not following every twist and turn in the EU’s debate over how to bail out failing banks, it may come as a bit of a surprise that finance ministers are still fighting over who pays for a collapsed financial institution given the deal struck in December on this very issue.
But a three-page “issues note” sent to national capitals this week ahead of EU finance ministers’ meetings on Monday and Tuesday – obtained by Brussels Blog and posted here – makes clear that there are still a lot of unanswered questions about a new EU-wide bank rescue fund to pay for such bailouts. And it’s perhaps no surprise that most of the unanswered questions centre around one thing: money. Read more
Do last week’s German constitutional court ruling lambasting – but failing to overturn – the European Central Bank’s crisis-fighting bond-buying programme and today’s political upheaval in Italy have anything in common?
In the view of many ECB critics, particularly in Berlin, the two are not only related, but one may have caused the other. Read more
EU commissioner Neelie Kroes
Neelie Kroes has built up a formidable reputation over four decades in politics – from privatising Dutch state telecom and postal services in the 1980s, to slapping a record $1.4bn fine on Microsoft as the EU’s anti-trust chief in 2008, to liberalising Europe’s fragmented telecoms market.
So when she announced her ambition to “reform and globalise how the internet is run” on Wednesday, some feared a power grab of audacious proportions.
Was the formidable Ms Kroes seeking to take on the management of the internet itself? Had the Commissioner’s ambitious instincts finally gotten the better of her?
The true scale of Ms Kroes’ ambitions are far more modest – by seeking to wrest some control from the US over the regulation of key web functions, such as top level domain name registration and the routing of web traffic, the Commission is seeking a small but significant role in managing the nuts and bolts of the internet. Read more
Jean-Claude Trichet, right, with the parliament's economic committee chair, Sharon Bowles
The troika of bailout lenders has not been getting much love at the European Parliament’s ongoing inquiry into its activities in recent weeks. But the criticism is not just coming from MEPs in the throes of election fever. Predictions of the troika’s demise have come from some unexpected quarters, including current and former members of the European Central Bank executive board.
During the hearings, MEPs have particularly criticised the troika — made up of the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the ECB — for its overly optimistic growth forecasts for bailout countries, which have been repeatedly revised downwards. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they have also suggested that the troika be subject to greater parliamentary oversight.
Hannes Swoboda, the Austrian social democrat who heads the centre-left caucus in the parliament, went further, saying the body is undemocratic, hostile to social rights and that the EU would be better off without it. Read more
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, left, with Ukrainian opposition leaders in Kiev last week
One of the lingering questions left after Ukraine’s failure to sign its long-negotiated integration treaty with the EU at a November summit in Vilnius – setting off months of protests in Kiev – is whether more needs to be offered to former Soviet republics than the current “Eastern Partnership”, which promises “association” but not future membership with the EU.
A Swedish-led effort to restart that conversation will be discussed at Monday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers, according to a “restricted distribution” document handed out to all 28 capitals ahead of the gathering. According to the “non-paper” – which Brussels Blog has posted here – 12 countries have signed onto the Swedish initiative, most of them former Soviet-bloc EU members, but also the UK and Germany.
Among other things, the paper, titled “20 points on the Eastern Partnership post-Vilnius”, argues quick signatures of treaties with Georgia and Moldova, the only two remaining after Ukraine and Armenia reneged at the last minute. Read more
José Bové, campaigning in France last year
Before coming to the European parliament in 2009, José Bové was best known as the French sheep farmer who demolished a McDonald’s near his hometown of Milau and was later jailed for destroying a crop of genetically modified rice.
But as of today, the anti-globalisation crusader with a trademark Asterix moustache can add another achievement to his curriculum vitae: the Green party’s candidate for president of the European Commission.
After a three-month online primary, Bové and Ska Keller, a 32-year-old German MEP, received the most votes and will run as co-candidates for the EU’s most high-profile job. Keller, who received 11,791 of the 22,676 votes cast through the Greens’ website, actually edged out Bové, who won 11,726. Read more
By Christian Oliver
Expectations from the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets: The EU will on Wednesday propose a series of energy and climate targets that will have a profound impact on how the continent generates its power. The overarching goals will be accompanied by proposals on the development of shale gas and measures to rescue the EU’s carbon market, which has fallen into disarray. The measures are being hotly contested as the targets are seen as vital to determining power prices and industrial competitiveness.
Early drafts of the package and people close to the talks suggest that the following are the most likely outcomes: Read more