ECB

Predicting what Germany will do in a negotiation is fast becoming the Brussels equivalent of soothsaying. Tuesday’s tetchy banking union talks set off yet another diplomatic stampede to consult the ouija boards, throwing canes and tarot cards in order to find out what Berlin really wants.

Were the strident objections of Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, just negotiating tactics? A manifestation of German domestic politics? Or are they red lines that will require the reforms to create a single banking supervisor to be totally recast or significantly delayed? We’ve consulted the FT Brussels Blog Oracle (and a few diplomats) to draw up these two scenarios.

The Germans are digging in: no deal this year

There was genuine shock at Schäuble’s intervention. Ahead of Tuesday’s meeting of finance ministers, four EU ambassadors predicted to us that a deal — or partial agreement — was at hand. That was until Schäuble spoke. He opened with a dispute that officials thought was close to being resolved: whether small banks fall under the ECB’s supervision responsibilities. Don’t think this will pass the German parliament, he warned.

More worrying for some was his next point. Read more

Rajoy is still angered by Spain's snubbing during Mersch's selection earlier this year.

If you thought the long, drawn-out saga of Yves Mersch’s nomination to a seat on the European Central Bank’s powerful executive board could not get any stranger, think again.

The Spanish government this morning informed Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president, that it objected to the fast-track “written procedure” Van Rompuy had begun in order to get Mersch finally seated in the job. The procedure – which was begun after the European Parliament refused to sign off on the nomination last month – was due to end today, making it possible for Mersch to take the long-empty seat by November 15.

But the Spanish veto means Mersch now can’t go through and the appointment battle, which has dragged on for nearly ten months, will have to be taken up by the EU’s presidents and prime ministers when they summit in Brussels later this month.

The question gripping the Brussels chattering classes now is: Why? Was Madrid trying to fire a warning shot across the bow of the ECB and Berlin, which have been ratcheting up the pressure over the conditions of a long-expected Spanish rescue programme? Senior officials insist the real reason is far more prosaic. Read more

Yves Mersch’s long, slow ascent to a place on the six-member executive board of the European Central Bank has just hit another potentially serious roadblock.

The governor of the Bank of Luxembourg is male, like all his central bank peers in the eurozone, and the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament has decided it is time to draw a line in the sand.

 Read more

Eurogroup contenders Juncker, left, and Schäuble

Although the financial markets and many non-Europeans will be watching Friday’s gathering of eurozone finance ministers in Copenhagen to find out how much they will enlarge Europe’s rescue fund, the Brussels echo chamber will be watching for another reason entirely: Just who will be getting three top jobs that must be filled by the time summer rolls around?

Up until the last day or two, the smart money was that Yves Mersch, head of Luxembourg’s central bank, would get the first job on offer – a coveted seat on the European Central Bank’s six-member executive board, taking away a post originally slated to go to a Spaniard, Antonio Sáinz de Vicuña.

But senior eurozone officials said the intense politicking that has occurred in the run up to Friday’s meeting has made Mersch’s appointment less certain. “It’s one of those things that could go one way or another,” said one person directly involved in the talks. “I wouldn’t bank on it yet.”

The politics get very complicated and are directly related to the re-election prospects of French president Nicolas Sarkozy. A detailed explanation of the convoluted twists after the jump… Read more

eurocoasterWelcome back to our live coverage of the eurozone crisis. By Tom Burgis and Esther Bintliff on the  newsdesk in London, with contributions from FT correspondents around the world.

All times are GMT. This post should update automatically ever few minutes, but it may take longer on mobile devices.

Europe’s leaders gather in Brussels today for another crunch summit. This time, we’re told, it’s different. Expectations are running high for a new grand bargain to restore sanity to the eurozone’s finances and chart a course out of the debt crisis. We’ll bring you all the build-up, plus:

  • The European Cental Bank’s interest rates decision and press conference from Mario Draghi, the ECB president under pressure to deploy more of the central bank’s resources to shore up the euro
  • The meeting of centre-right European leaders in Marseille, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy of France, the two key players in the euro drama
  • The unveiling by the European banking authority of the individual capital needs of Europe’s banks

 Read more