Monthly Archives: January 2009

John Gapper

I note that Bill Clinton, whom I warned last year was in danger of tarnishing his Davos brand by being nasty about Barack Obama on the US campaign trial, seems to have bounced back.

The absence of any senior figures from the US administration at the World Economic Forum this year has left Mr Clinton to re-occupy his place as the well-loved philanthropist and former president who represents the acceptable – even loveable – face of the US in Europe.

He is also on fine form. I was standing in the Hotel Belvedere lobby earlier this week when Mr Clinton passed through and provoked a scream of excitement from some women officials. He turned and waved cheerily at them, as if pleased that his natural place in the world order had been re-established.

Mr Clinton also received a respectful session to himself in the main Congress Centre, and played the diplomat, agreeing with Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, that the US was the place where the financial crisis had started and “the house in on fire and we need to put it out as fast as we can”.

Not only that, but an invite to the Clinton Global Initiative’s party at the Kirchner Museum was sought after, as Gideon Rachman noted ruefully this morning, and Mr Clinton was the most impressive speaker at the philanthropy lunch that I attended yesterday.

It is an interesting question as to whether he would have regained his stature quite as fast if his negative campaigning in the Democratic primary last year had actually had the intended effect, and brought down Mr Obama. But the fact that he was ineffective has allowed him to return to the status quo ante.

John Gapper

The latest recipient of a bail-out seems to be Matthew Bishop, the author with Michael Green, of Philanthrocapitalism: How the Rich Can Save the World, a book about the new wave of philanthropy by business leaders and billionaires.

Matthew, who works for The Economist, had the misfortune to publish his book last August, at precisely the moment when the financial bubble popped and the notion that the such people were benefactors from whom traditional foundations and governments should learn lost its appeal.

I pointed that out in my review, published in the same week that Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Nothing daunted, however, Matthew has kept publicising the book (which is, by the way, rather good). His prolonged book tour reached its peak in Davos today when the Victor Pinchuk Foundation laid on a lunch to discuss the ideas in the book, handed out lots of copies and secured an all-star cast to mull it over.

The panel, apart from Matthew himself, was: Tony Blair, Richard Branson, Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, the Chinese actor Jet Li and Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel prize-winning microfinance pioneer. Beat that, other book authors.

There was an element of rebranding: the event was titled From Philanthrocapitalism to Philanthrocrisis. It seems that the rich people about whom Matthew wrote have no intention of letting his work be forgotten.

John Gapper

I ran into Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who made his name by being very gloomy about the world economy and the financial system before both came crashing down, last night. I think it is fair to say that he was looking extremely cheerful.

For one thing, Prof Roubini – who is known as Doctor Doom – is omnipresent in Davos this year, along with his fellow seer of pessimism, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan. He is officially on four panels (Mr Taleb is on six) but he told me he is speaking at 10 events in Davos altogether.

Furthermore, the crash seems to have been good for business. Apart from being an academic, Prof Roubini runs an analysis and consulting firm called Roubini Global Economics and a subscription-based internet site called RGE Global Monitor. The two now employ 50 people and he says he is still hiring.

Prof Roubini is also in heavy demand as a consultant to the private sector, including hedge funds. His social profile has even been raised by the internet site Gawker, which has dubbed him a “playboy” because of the fun-filled parties he holds at his loft in Tribeca. A CNBC interview with Prof Roubini ran with the on-screen title “Party Monster in the Mountains”.

He told me that even this has some benefits: after giving a two-hour presentation on economics to a hedge fund recently, he was asked various serious questions. Finally, at the end of the meeting, one of the financiers raised his hand and asked if he could get an invitation to one of Prof Roubini’s parties.

John Gapper

davos.jpg

My column in the FT this week, as promised, relates to a certain Swiss ski-ing resort:

It’s lonely at the top.

Having journeyed this week up a Swiss mountain valley to the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, I find myself in select company. Several members of the global business elite discovered at the last minute that they had pressing business elsewhere.

Where is John Thain, the former chief executive of Merrill Lynch? Back in New York trying to rescue his good name after being pushed out by Bank of America and having details of his $1.2m office refurbishment leaked. And where is Sam DiPiazza, chief executive of PwC? In India, where two PwC auditors have been held by police over their role in the alleged $1bn fraud at Satyam Computers.

This is usually the time of year when Davos Man – the global banker and business leader whose fortunes have risen spectacularly during the past three decades – gets to strut his or her stuff. This January, Davos Man is being humbled instead.

It is tricky to be seen at a talking shop in Switzerland when your house is burning down. Even Bob Diamond, president of Barclays, which managed to persuade investors this week that it is not going bust, decided it would be wiser to stay in London.

But there is more going on than a bunch of chief executives temporarily bowing to public relations realities. The ascendancy of Davos Man is under threat for the first time since Klaus Schwab organised the inaugural meeting in 1971.

You can read the rest of the column here and comment below.

John Gapper

I have a review of Jeff Jarvis’s What Would Google Do? in Thursday’s FT. I enjoyed reading it but I disagreed with much of what it said.

It took a long time to work out what was wrong with this book. But near the end, Jeff Jarvis himself, in his agreeably open manner, comes close to pointing it out. He has got the wrong company.

If you are going to write about which company others should mimic in business practices, marketing and general attitude, it is not Google. A far better example is Apple.

The truth is that following Google, or surrendering to it, as Jarvis spends half his time advocating, is a route to bankruptcy for many.

Google tries to commoditise industries and crush the margins of other companies, which may be good for consumers but is bad for business. Jarvis will not admit this because he is a digital evangelist for whom Google must be for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

He is not, however, blind. Indeed, he is an intelligent observer of technology and the media and has intellectual scruples. This brings him to confront, eventually, a paradox. How come Apple, which ignores most of his rules for Google-like behaviour, is so successful and profitable?

He does not have an adequate answer, and tries suggesting that Apple and Google are similar in spirit. Perhaps, but their ways of doing business are very different, as he also admits.

You can read the rest of the review here and comment below.

John Gapper

On my travels, I neglected to post the review I wrote for the FT on Monday of Kenneth Roman’s The King of Madison Avenue, a biography of the late David Ogilvy:

In 1989, having dismissed Martin Sorrell as “this gnome” and vilified him in the Financial Times, David Ogilvy took up Mr Sorrell’s offer to absorb Ogilvy & Mather into WPP and make Ogilvy non-executive chairman.

“I’m hard up. I’ve mismanaged my money. I have a castle and a young wife and I need the money. Greed [pause]. There’s also some vanity involved,” he told his board.

Somehow, although uttered at the moment of defeat, without the joie de vivre of much of Ogilvy’s life, it captures the man. Here was the crisp precision of his rhetoric; the beguiling directness; the use of emotion to make the sale; and, yes, vanity.

Ogilvy, who died in 1999, was not the single biggest talent of Madison Avenue’s advertising agencies in the mid-20th century. That prize goes to Bill Bernbach, the Brooklyn-born copywriter whose campaigns for Volkswagen and Orbach’s department store in New York married laconic humour to stark images in a manner that instantly changed how advertising worked.

But Ogilvy, New York advertising’s flamboyant immigrant, approached Bernbach, and outdid figures such as Leo Burnett, creator of the Marlboro Man, and Rosser Reeves of Ted Bates & Company, in his impact.

He burst on to the New York advertising scene, backed by his brother in London, in 1948. A drop-out from Oxford, he had already tried being a sous-chef in Paris and a farmer in Pennsylvania’s Amish country. He fixed his tie with a bulldog clip and wore a scarlet-lined blazer.

You can read the rest here and comment below.

John Gapper

I started my day in Davos with Richard Edelman of the eponymous public relations company at a breakfast to launch its annual trust barometer report.

The conclusion is that trust in chief executives and private enterprise is at an all-time low. Trust in US business fell from 58 per cent last year to 38 per cent, bringing it in line with levels similar to the other side of the Atlantic.

The statistic I found most interesting is that only 49 per cent of Americans, living in the country of capitalism and free enterprise, thought the free market should be allowed to operate independently.

As Richard put it: “America is the new Europe”.

I find that, if not surprising, quite a sobering figure. If the country of bare-knuckled capitalism no longer believes in it – at least temporarily – all bets are off.

Nick Burns, a Harvard professor and former undersecretary of state for the US, said the world was at “a hinge point in history” similar to 1919, when the public’s trust in institutions is exhausted and political change results.

I plan to write more about the issue in my FT column tomorrow.

John Gapper

Here I am in Davos and where is everyone else?

A lot of chief executives have signed up for the World Economic Forum but seem to be getting cold feet, so to speak, at the last minute. Today, we learned that Bob Diamond, president of Barclays, will not attend after all.

Mr Diamond joins a number of investment banks in heavily slimming down their presence here. Goldman has cancelled its usual party and Lloyd Blankfein, its chairman and chief executive, is staying at home.

Meanwhile, I have turned up for PwC’s annual press conference at the Belvedere hotel to discuss its survey of CEO confidence (yes, it is very low this year). But Sam DiPiazza, PwC’s global CEO, who usually presides over the event, is nowhere to be seen.

The PwC partners who took his place for the event just explained that he is in India on business and hopes to arrive in Davos by the end of the week.

It does make sense that bankers, who face intense pressure on their share prices and liquidity, do not feel they can spare the time at the moment.

They are probably also afraid of the curse of Davos – that any CEO whose business is under pressure risks looking like he or she is swanning around by spending time up a Swiss mountain discussing the environment etc.

It is not just investors or the general public who might be irritated this year – the governments and regulators that have put money into banks will probably want to see executives buckling down in the office.

I wonder who else among business leaders will drop out as the week goes on? It is snowing, by the way, and the mountains look beautiful.

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This blog is mainly about business and strategy and how and why people who run companies take the decisions that they do.

Most of the time, John Gapper is in New York and Andrew Hill is in London. We occasionally debate business issues between us, but your comments and criticism are welcome.




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About John and Andrew

John Gapper is an associate editor and the chief business commentator of the FT. He has worked for the FT since 1987, covering labour relations, banking and the media. He is co-author, with Nicholas Denton, of All That Glitters, an account of the collapse of Barings in 1995.

Andrew Hill is an associate editor and the management editor of the FT. He is a former City editor, financial editor, comment and analysis editor, New York bureau chief, foreign news editor and correspondent in Brussels and Milan.

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