Monthly Archives: October 2009

John Gapper

While at BMW in Munich, I received an insight into why we should not hold our breath for pure electric cars to replace those with internal combustion engines.

It came from Hans Rathgeber, a BMW executive in charge of developing fuel-efficient technology for the BMW and Mini brands. Mr Rathgeber’s latest project is a BMW concept sports car, unveiled at the Frankfurt motor show, which accelerates to 100 km per hour in 4.8 seconds but is extremely fuel efficient.

BMW has produced the Mini E, an experimental electric car which is being tested by selected drivers (about 450 in the US, for example). It is powered by a lithium ion battery and has a maximum range of about 170 km in normal driving conditions.

However, Mr Rathgeber had doubts about whether battery technology will advance rapidly enough in the next two decades to enable pure electric cars to have sufficient range to challenge hybrids that have both internal combustion engines and electric ones.

The problem of the battery is that it is not an electronic part, it is chemical. In chemistry what you don’t know today you won’t know in 20 years,” he told me.

BMW has been working on improving the fuel efficiency of its entire fleet of cars under a programme known as Efficient Dynamics. Its new cars registered in 2008 had lower carbon dioxide emissions that competitors such as Audi and Volvo.

John Gapper

It sounds absurd to be surprised at how automated the process of car production is these days, but that was my reaction when I toured BMW’s plant making Series 3 cars in Munich today.

It has been more than 10 years since I went round a vehicle plant, so I took the opportunity on a visit to Munich to visit the one that which stands on the site where BMW first made aircraft engines in 1917.

About 9,000 people work at the plant, which only turns out about 900 or so cars a day – these are, after all, premium cars and not volume models – but most of the work is done by robots.

In the body shop, where the stamped metal sheets are welded together into car bodies, for example, about 97 per cent of the task is done by 650 robots. The remaining three percent consists of changing copper welding tips and placing stamped sheets where the robots can pick them up.

BMW does not allow visitors to take photographs inside the plant, which is a pity because I would otherwise have posted a shot of the intricate dance of the robots, which is quite a sight.

The robots, which are made by Kuka and ABB, are painted orange and tilt and twist on several axes as the metal parts are threaded in and out, glued and welded. BMW is proud of a station at which the completed bodies get welded by 12 robots at once, said to be more than its rivals manage.

Even on the assembly line, the powertrains and bodies are brought together (in a process called “marriage”) by robots and human intervention is limited to jobs such as tightening some bolts and threading in the electrics. Humans still make the car seats, although that too is done by robots at other BMW plants.

That accounts for the fact that far fewer people work in vehicle plants than in the past, despite their image of being filled with people. General Motors, for example, now employs only 48,000 US manual workers, down from 114,000 three years ago.

Robots have been in use for about three decades and I recall the 1979 British television advertisement for the Fiat Strada which boasted of them being “hand-built by robots”.

There is a, possibly apocryphal, story that when Hugh Hudson, the director of the Fiat Strada spot, arrived in Turin for the filming, his crew came across a protest by workers at their jobs being taken over by machines. That fight has long been lost.

John Gapper

I reviewed Too Big To Fail – favourably – in the FT today:

For 19 years, the curse of Barbarians at the Gate, Bryan Burrough and John Helyar’s groundbreaking book about the leveraged buy-out of RJR Nabisco, has hung over the publishing industry. Every time there is a tumultuous financial collapse or scandal, journalists scurry to write proposals for books, promising to recount it Barbarians-style.

The finished products are often letdowns, for various reasons. One is that to reproduce the level of human and financial detail in Barbarians – the thoughts that ran through the minds of the executives and bankers as they struggled over the deals, the culture clashes, the petty rivalries – requires an enormous amount of work. When the authors fake it or use shortcuts, it shows.

More important, few stories have the scale and the range of larger-than-life characters – from Henry Kravis of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts to Ross Johnson of RJR Nabisco – of Barbarians. Even events that appear dramatic at the time, such as the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, lack an enduring grandeur.

With Too Big to Fail, however, Andrew Ross Sorkin has broken the Barbarians curse. Weighing in at 600 pages (and immediately dubbed by cynics “Too Big to Read” or just “Too Big”), Ross Sorkin’s densely detailed and astonishing narrative of the epic financial crisis of 2008 is an extraordinary achievement that will be hard to surpass as the definitive account.

You can read the rest of the review here.

John Gapper

My FT column this week is about how to restructure banks:

When the history of the global financial crisis is written, it may record that Neelie Kroes, the European Union’s competition commissioner was the only politician willing to respond in a logical manner.

By insisting on the break-up of the ING Group into its banking and insurance divisions – and on it divesting its US direct savings arm – Ms Kroes set a welcome precedent this week. She made a troublesome too-big-to-fail institution shrink.

The US, meanwhile, is joining the UK and others in proceeding in the opposite direction. Rather than making the Citigroups and Deutsche Banks of the world get smaller, they are bolstering them and preparing to deal with them next time they sink.

As Terry Smith, chief executive of the broker Tullett Prebon and a former banking analyst, puts it, this is “like the designer of the Titanic arguing that the provision of extra lifeboats would solve the problem”.Along with Ms Kroes, central bankers including Mervyn King of the Bank of England and Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, formerly of the US Federal Reserve, and now, improbably, John Reed, an architect of Citigroup, I prefer the simpler, sterner approach.

My colleague John Kay has described this as splitting banks into utilities and casinos – or deposit-taking banks that need to be backed by governments and investment banks indulging in proprietary trading that do not.

I think a more logical division would be a three-way split into utilities, casinos and people who visit casinos to gamble. That means retail banks, investment banks and asset managers, including private equity and hedge funds.

It may sound like a three-way split rather than a two-way one is a fine distinction. Yet it matters because this mix of businesses is what many too-big-to-fail institutions contain, with all the conflicts of interest and systemic problems it creates.

You can read the rest of the column here and comment below.

John Gapper

I said I would report back on my experience with using a fully-fledged version of Windows 7 on a netbook – an Asus Eee that I bought last week.

To cut a long story short, it has been good so far. The netbook does not appear to have any trouble running Windows 7 Ultimate, of which I was given a review copy last week. Given Windows’ record of demanding ever more sophisticated hardware to work, that is impressive.

The upgrade from Windows 7 Starter, the stripped-down version of the software that Microsoft has licensed to netbook manufacturers, worked smoothly and so I am now being treated to the Aero display features not included in the cheaper version.

That is one piece of good news. The other is that Windows 7 does indeed seem to be a better-looking and more stable piece of software than previous versions (although it is early days).

One of the best things about it is the Aero interface, which beats Apple’s Snow Leopard in terms of the ease with which multiple programs and files can be viewed on the desktop.

Windows 7 also delivers better on past promises on things that matter to users but which Microsoft has been shamefully poor at making work in the past. The machine boots up rapidly and can also come in and out of sleep mode quickly and consistently.

One caveat: I am suspending judgment since Windows has in the past had a tendency to operate rapidly at first and then slow down egregiously the longer it operates. But so far, so good.

Finally, Microsoft seems to have made some strides in making Windows easier and more intuitive to operate, an area in which Apple has been far ahead.

The machine signed on to my home network easily and Windows Media Centre, its program for playing songs and videos – and streaming them on a network – looks good.

Having said this, the netbook suits me just fine (although I am using it in limited ways) and I see no need to spend more money on a more expensive laptop. So Michael Dell and others can hector consumers all they like about netbooks’ shortcomings; I am not convinced.

John Gapper

Good for the European Commission. The news that ING, the financial services group, is now breaking up its banking and insurance divisions – and being forced to sell ING Direct USA – is one of the first times that a  banking group has been properly humbled for its role in the financial crisis.

So far, national governments have largely avoided actually making banks smaller as the price for needed to be bailed out. Indeed, the trend has been in the other direction – Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary last year, pushed for deals such as Bank of America taking over Merrill Lynch.

There has been a spate of central bankers and former central bankers arguing for banks to be divided up to avoid the mingling of deposit-taking and “casino” activities such as hedge fund management.

The list of splitters (maybe in honour of Jonathan Swift they should be called “Little-Endians” as opposed to the government “Big-Endians” who favour keeping banks together and regulating them more tightly) now includes quite a roster of names.

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has  joined Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, two former chairmen of the Federal Reserve, in favouring banks being broken up.

That has led to a chorus from Treasury ministers (and even other central bankers) saying that dividing up banks is too tricky and the end of financial stability can be achieved by other means.

However, the EU competition authorities have ventured where national governments have been too timid in demanding that an effective price is paid for state aid. They deserve a pat on the back, I think.

John Gapper

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s chief executive, was characteristically upbeat at the launch of Windows 7, the new version of its operating software in New York today. Mr Ballmer had good reason since Windows 7 (whether or not is numbered correctly) looks like a good product.

Microsoft has had enough of being pilloried by Apple for the complexity and unreliability of Windows. The software not only appears to be more reliable and much easier to use than previous versions but it does things like setting up a home network and streaming video across it with impressive ease.

The most notable absentee at this morning’s launch, however, was the netbook. When Mr Ballmer unveiled the array of computers from Microsoft’s partners running Windows 7, none of them that I could see were netbooks,  the cheap and popular portable machines about which I have written.

Indeed, Mr Ballmer went out of his way to claim that many people were dissatisfied with the slow graphics performance of netbooks. Instead, he showed off some small laptops that had faster chips and superior graphics cards from manufacturers including Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard.

It was yet another heavy-handed attempt by the Wintel industry to wean customers off netbooks, which are so cheap – and thus offer such low margins – that companies like Dell seem to be making them only under protest. Michael Dell recently made scathing remarks about the category.

Microsoft is only allowing netbook manufacturers to install the hobbled Starter edition of Windows 7, thus depriving users of some of the most attractive and time-saving aspects of Windows 7 – in particular the improved desktop navigation.

The truth, however, is that full-strength Windows 7 runs perfectly fine on netbooks. I have this on authority from a senior Microsoft engineer who told me he had installed Windows 7 Ultimate on his netbook with no problem whatsoever.

This encouraged me to defy Mr Ballmer’s advice today and buy an Asus netbook, which comes with Windows 7 Starter edition. Despite the heckling from the industry against customers who dare to like an inconvenient product, that should do me fine.

I do, however, have one advantage. Microsoft handed out a copy of Windows 7 Ultimate (in fact, Windows 7 Ultimate Signature Edition with Mr Ballmer’s inscribed on it) to journalists at the event. So I plan to upgrade my netbook with it and will let you know how it goes.

Those who want to upgrade their netbooks from Starter to Home Premium and did not get invited to today’s event will have to pay $80 for the licence in the US.

John Gapper

My FT column this week returns to Goldman Sachs:

A decade ago, when Goldman Sachs was a private partnership, it had $6.5bn in equity and its 220 partners, most of whose money was tied up in the firm until they retired, took good care of their pot of gold.

The bank’s trading and principal investing division – the part that took the most risks with partners’ capital – was balanced with its fee-based investment banking and asset management divisions. Trading contributed about a third of its revenues in the two years leading up to its 1999 initial public offering.

After it sold shares in the IPO to outside investors – pension and mutual funds hold about 80 per cent of its equity – it steadily increased its appetite for risk. Its fixed income and currency division has become dominant, bringing in two-thirds of Goldman’s revenues in 2006 and 2007 (and 78 per cent in the first nine months of this year).

In last year’s crisis, the US government made clear that it stands behind Goldman and other big investment banks. It received a $10bn (€6.7bn, £6.0bn) capital injection from the Treasury (since returned) and $21bn of its debt is backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. It is now a financial holding company whose regulator and lender of last resort is the Federal Reserve.

So, if Goldman Sachs took on more risk when its equity was held by outsiders than with its partners’ own money, what can we expect now that the government implicitly accepts that it is “too big to fail”? Goldman has an even bigger incentive to risk other people’s money.

You can read the rest here and comment below.

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This blog is mainly about business and strategy and how and why people who run companies take the decisions that they do.

Most of the time, John Gapper is in New York and Andrew Hill is in London. We occasionally debate business issues between us, but your comments and criticism are welcome.




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About John and Andrew

John Gapper is an associate editor and the chief business commentator of the FT. He has worked for the FT since 1987, covering labour relations, banking and the media. He is co-author, with Nicholas Denton, of All That Glitters, an account of the collapse of Barings in 1995.

Andrew Hill is an associate editor and the management editor of the FT. He is a former City editor, financial editor, comment and analysis editor, New York bureau chief, foreign news editor and correspondent in Brussels and Milan.

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