Monthly Archives: November 2009

John Gapper

China’s export-led growth strategy has been very successful in providing employment for people moving from the countryside to cities, and has provided strong GDP growth, but it has weaknesses that have become more apparent since last year’s financial crisis.

That was the impression I got on my recent visit there, as noted in my column a couple of weeks ago, and it is reinforced by reading the European Chamber report on severe over-capacity in Chinese industries such as wind power, steel-making and oil refining.

A Financial Times editorial today discusses the “disturbing” report and concludes:

China’s trading partners have to engage with the rising giant. They must explain that they cannot – and will not – absorb the surplus capacity its heavily distorted model of development is creating. But they can point out that this pattern also damages the standards of living of ordinary Chinese. China has to shift income from its corporations to its households and spending from investment to consumption. What is needed for that is a massive structural reform. This must start now. Indeed, it may already be too late.

The report itself blames factors such as incentives on local officials to promote GDP growth at all costs, and the fact that state-owned enterprises do not pay dividends, for the glut of low cost capital in China and a rampant level of over-investment, particularly in heavy industries.

It is not only European observers who think this. The report quotes China’s State Council, which two months ago released a statement complaining of local governments continuing to expand capacity “blindly” and to make “duplicated” investments without thinking of the consequences.

The result is huge over-capacity in heavy industries that soak up excess capital, which was hidden until last year by strong export demand for steel and the other affected products. But it also makes Chinese industry vulnerable to shocks such as the financial crisis.

The Chinese government itself accepts – at least in theory – the need to switch away from a pure reliance on exports to fuel growth, to boost domestic consumption and to make growth more balanced.

However, whether anything will be done in the medium-term is another matter. Jonathan Fenby, the head of China research at Trusted Sources, a research group, argued recently that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the two senior Chinese leaders, will “muddle through” until the change of leadership in 2012.

John Gapper

The intrigues of the Murdoch family are always fascinating, especially since Rupert Murdoch wants one of his children to succeed him at the helm of News Corporation.

That makes Lachlan Murdoch’s sale this week of half his non-voting shares in News Corp, followed by a deal for his company to buy a 50 per cent share in Daily Mail & General Trust’s radio operations in Australia, an interesting event.

This, combined with Lachlan’s recent purchase of a mansion in Sydney for $21m, suggests that he is moving further away from a return to an executive role at News Corp, which he left in 2005 after a difficult period in New York as deputy chief operating officer.

That has not stopped his father wanting him to return to News Corp as an executive – indeed fairly openly pining for him to do so. Lachlan still sits on the board of the company as a non-executive.

Lachlan’s sale of shares, which he has not explained, is a striking act of dissociation from News Corp, given that he is a board director. He received most of the non-voting shares in 2007 as part of a resolution of a family tussle over financial arrangements for Rupert’s six children.

The sale puts Lachlan in a similar position to Elisabeth Murdoch, who has developed a successful career as an independent television producer in London, running her company Shine.

It also makes it more likely that James, who is now chairman and chief executive of News Corp’s international operations, will succeed his father at the top of the company.

John Gapper

The financial crisis has come full circle. Having started in Florida, home of speculative property development and sub-prime lending, it is culminating in Dubai, the most fragile of the United Arab Emirates.

The ambiguity over the financial strength of  Dubai,  a trading entrepot that relies on Abu Dhabi, the richest of the emirates, for financial backing ended on Wednesday with the disclosure that it wants investors to agree a debt standstill at Dubai World, its flagship holding company.

The news has shocked investors and follows a crash in Dubai, especially at properties such as Palm Islands, an offshore development overseen by Nakheel, the property arm of Dubai World.

Somehow, it is apposite that Dubai should be struck like this two years after the housing crash in Florida, and other US states such as Arizona, rippled through global financial markets.

Like Florida, Dubai is a resort centre to which people from Europe and Asia go for holidays, and to buy beachside apartments. They also have in common property development on reclaimed land – much of Florida was once swampland and Dubai has extended itself into the Gulf.

Florida, however, has one advantage over Dubai. The financial support of the US government is not in question, even if Florida’s finances were affected by the crash.

In Dubai’s case, overseas investors hoped that, if the worst came to the worst, Abu Dhabi would stand behind its brother emirate. It seems that their assumption was incorrect.

The ratings agency Moody’s summarised the event thus:

“Moody’s has always highlighted that the way the government will deal with Nakheel’s upcoming liabilities will represent a litmus test for Dubai. Although Nakheel is not rated by Moody’s, it sets a major precedent for a high-profile, seemingly strategic company facing debt repayment difficulties and thus relying on the government for support. A restructuring of its obligations would indicate that the government is prepared to allow a government-related issuer to default on its obligations.”

While Latin American countries such as Brazil have emerged intact from the financial crisis, this threatened default has emerged, of all places, in an Arab oil state.

John Gapper

pinn

My column in the FT this week is on the Cadbury takeover battle:

If British takeover battles were decided on personal chemistry and corporate culture, rather than how much money the shareholders are offered, Kraft’s hostile $16.2bn (€10.8bn, £9.8bn) bid for Cadbury would be doomed.

Having irritated Roger Carr, Cadbury’s chairman, by dropping in for tea and talking about money, Irene Rosenfeld, Kraft’s chief executive, felt the chill of British contempt. Her bid was dismissed as a “derisory” offer from a “low-growth conglomerate”.

The message, couched in terms the Takeover Panel would accept, was clear enough. Just because American soldiers came over here with their Hershey bars in the war and took our women, don’t think an American woman can come back with dollars and take our Dairy Milk.

Takeovers in the UK are not, however, decided by such things. Unlike in the US, where boards can erect barriers to hostile bids under the jurisdiction of Delaware where most large companies are incorporated, money decides. “It is bloody difficult to imagine a board recommending the lower of two offers,” says one City banker.

Please read the rest here and comment below.

John Gapper

Silicon Valley’s commitment to shareholder democracy – or to public shareholder democracy as opposed to the influence wielded by venture capital firms – does not seem to be strong.

The news that Facebook has established a dual-class share structure, converting its existing shareholders to Class B stock carrying 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares, suggests that (despite its denials) Facebook is readying itself for an initial public offering.

It is also falling in line with Google, which created a dual-class share structure for its IPO in 2004, which also gave 10 times the voting power to some shareholders. Eric Schmidt, the company’s chief executive, and Larry Page and Sergey Brin, its co-founders, control the majority voting rights as a result.

Mr Page and Mr Brin wrote of this arrangement in their founders’ letter to shareholders:

“While this structure is unusual for technology companies, similar structures are common in the media business and had a profound importance there. The New York Times Company, The Washington Post Company and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, all have similar dual class ownership structures. Media observers have pointed out that dual class ownership has allowed these companies to concentrate on their core, long-term interest in serious news coverage, despite fluctuations in quarterly results.”

Five years on, Google is doing a great deal better than the models for its dual-class share structure, with the possible exception of the Bancroft family, which cannily sold out to News Corp for $5bn in 2007. That raises the question of whether such structures really protect long-term shareholder value.

Whether or not they do, Silicon Valley founders such as Mark Zuckerberg seem to like the idea of being able to sell shares to the public – making themselves rich in the process – without relinquishing control. It is a nice arrangement if you can get it.

Another devotee of the dual-class share structure is Rupert Murdoch, who is now locked in combat with Google, making it a fight between B share-protected species.

John Gapper

There are sometimes doubts about US brands overseas and whether they enjoy the same influence and respect as they do at home. I wonder, however, whether the opposite is a bigger worry.

The thought is prompted by talking to senior executives of Starwood Hotels and Resorts, the US hotel chain that owns brands including Sheraton, Meridien, W, Westin, and St Regis.

Starwood has been refurbishing half of its 200 Sheraton hotels in the US at a cost of $1.4bn because it wants to bring them up to the standard of Sheratons in countries including China. There are 50 Starwood hotels in China already, and a further 75 in development.

“The standard is very high in China and we did not want our Chinese guests one day to come to the US and be disappointed,” says Frits van Paasschen, Starwood’s chief executive.

Sheraton is far from the only well-known US brand that has a stronger brand image in emerging markets than in its home country. Buick is well respected in China while GM, its parent company, is still trying to revive its  reputation at home.

Similarly, KFC outlets in China often look smarter than many of those in the US, although it is owned by Yum Brands and had its origins in Kentucky. The same has been true of McDonald’s in Europe and Asia compared with McDonald’s in the US.

In some ways, it is only natural for mature brands in the US to have a better shot at reinventing themselves in overseas markets, where they have no legacy problems. One reason why Starwood hotels are rated highly in China is that its hotels there are newer.

All the same, it casts an interesting light on concerns about whether foreigners respect US brands. Some 80 per cent of guests at Sheraton hotels in China, for example, are Chinese.

John Gapper

Rupert Murdoch’s talks with Microsoft about removing his newspapers’ stories from Google, and giving the rights to index them to Microsoft’s Bing, could be a pivotal moment in internet economics.

Mr Murdoch appears to be willing to sacrifice a lot of traffic to the websites of papers such as the Wall Street Journal and The Times in return for a payment from Microsoft. In effect, he would be swapping his revenue stream from online advertising with a payment from Microsoft for drawing visitors to Bing.

That suggests one of two things: either, as a lot of digital evangelists have suggested, he is getting old and does not “get” the internet, or he has looked at the figures and decided that Google traffic is not worth very much. Personally, I think the latter is more plausible.

Ryan Chittum of the Columbia Journalism Review did some calculations the other day and suggested that the Journal gets less than $12m a year in advertising to people who come to its site through Google, although it accounts for 23 per cent of the Journal’s traffic.

The [New York] Times typically gets about twice the traffic the WSJ does. For simplicity’s sake (I don’t know if the WSJ gets more or less per unit of traffic than the NYT does), let’s say the Journal will get half what the Times will in online ad revenue this year, or $51 million. If all visitors were equal (and they’re not!), that would imply Google brings just $11.7 million a year in ads or $978,000 a month.

In fact, as he says, this estimate is probably too high because it equates the yield from advertising to people who arrive at the Journal site through Google with the yield from advertising to paid subscribers. In practice, advertisers are willing to pay far higher rates to reach paid subscribers.

As I pointed out the other day in a column for the FT, advertisers (correctly) do not value random traffic from search engines on a par with paying subscribers. The former are readers while the latter are customers who are signalling loyalty to the product.

So traffic drawn to news sites through links and search engines is better regarded as a marketing device to attract subscribers than as a big revenue stream. The Journal’s policy of giving away some of its stories and charging for others is thus a “freemium” strategy.

Mr Murdoch appears to have decided he will not lose very much by ditching Google traffic and even a fairly small payment from Microsoft would compensate. He is attempting to get distributors to pay for content in the way that US cable operators pay cable networks for programming.

He may have got the idea from the fact that Google was willing to pay News Corp $900m three years ago for the right to provide search and sell advertising on MySpace until 2010. The deal has not worked as planned because MySpace’s traffic has fallen below target.

Presumably, any payment from Microsoft for the right to index news would be a lot lower than this, even if it included rights to advertising revenue from people clicking through to News Corp sites.

Nonetheless, the principle does not strike me as far-fetched, even if we have yet to find whether he can pull it off. If the revenue from search traffic is low, why not swap it for something else?

John Gapper

Ingram Pinn illustration

My column in the FT this week is on Beijing’s rapid development:

Shooting down the multi-lane highway from Qingdao airport to the centre of the coastal city this week, I had the usual impressions of a visitor to China. The roads were immaculate, the drive into town took a long time because of the sprawl of what is only a medium-sized Chinese city – only 8m or so people in the metropolitan area – and buildings sprouted on all sides.

I also noticed that I, the sole westerner in the Audi cruising in from the airport, was the only passenger wearing a seatbelt.

That is a metaphor for China itself in the week when Barack Obama paid a visit. It is travelling rapidly along the path of development into one of the world’s largest economies, without much room for error.

The US president’s visit this week has focused minds on the tensions in the US-China relationship in the wake of last year’s financial crisis. America relies on China to finance its trade deficit, while China needs the US to buy its goods in order to keep export-led growth on track.

Please read the rest here and comment below.

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This blog is mainly about business and strategy and how and why people who run companies take the decisions that they do.

Most of the time, John Gapper is in New York and Andrew Hill is in London. We occasionally debate business issues between us, but your comments and criticism are welcome.




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Contact andrew.hill@ft.com or john.gapper@ft.com about the Business blog.

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About John and Andrew

John Gapper is an associate editor and the chief business commentator of the FT. He has worked for the FT since 1987, covering labour relations, banking and the media. He is co-author, with Nicholas Denton, of All That Glitters, an account of the collapse of Barings in 1995.

Andrew Hill is an associate editor and the management editor of the FT. He is a former City editor, financial editor, comment and analysis editor, New York bureau chief, foreign news editor and correspondent in Brussels and Milan.

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