Although the conference dribbles on until Sunday morning, by Friday evening the tone has been set. So what is the verdict?
The mood is certainly better than last year, when the world was ending, but it is worse than at the beginning of last week. Alessandro Profumo of Unicredit acutely observed that Davos is likely to accentuate whatever mood you arrived in, rather as alcohol does, I guess. So those who arrived nervous about the economic prospects are leaving even more jittery. If you arrived feeling pessimistic, you will leave somewhere between suicidal and homicidal.
The market background has not helped. Anxiety about Greece has grown over the past three days. In the circumstances, it was strange to see both the Greek prime minister and his finance minister here. Maybe the subtext was to show that there can be no crisis if they are munching muesli in the mountains, but though some may have been reassured, more people asked who was at home minding the taverna.
And the aftershocks of last week’s Obama announcements continued to reverberate. There was already a confusing plethora of groups engaged in trying to reform the global regulatory system – the G20, the Financial Stability Board, the Basel Committee and what have you. Now the people of Massachusetts seem to have decided to lend a hand. Perhaps the Canadians can make sense of all these competing initiatives at their G20 summit. in the meantime confusion reigns, which is not good for confidence.
From a narrow British perspective this looks to be the year when the global baton passed from Gordon Brown’s hand. Two years ago he strode the halls with an attentive entourage. This year he was not present. He was faintly praised by Sarkozy in his speech, but in almost a valedictory tone.
There is usually a British lunch. This year there was a reception instead. The Duke of York marched us up the stairs to an intimate salon in the Belvedere hotel- so intimate that some guests marched straight down again. There may have been drinks, though they were not evident to me. As compensation, Alistair Darling dispensed his usual mixture of charm and calm, while Lord Mandelson conspired in a corner.
Usually Davos invites a token Tory. They do not like to hold uncovered political positions, so always try to hedge their bets a little. This time they were, if anything, overhedged. David Cameron was given a platform to try to sell his regulatory reform plans. George Osborne is here, and William Hague too. Andrew Mitchell, the party’s global conscience, talked development aid, while Boris Johnson boosted the bankers- off piste and countercyclical as ever. All of them were marshalled by their cheerfully ubiquitous party treasurer, Michael Spencer. The inattentive foreigner could have been excused for thinking that the election had already occurred.
So what can we expect next year? Will Cameron and Osborne adopt the Greek strategy, and smile and whistle in public through a sterling crisis, or will they stay at home closeted with Goldman Sachs while they try to interest the Chinese in £100bn of indexed gilts?
