Toyota’s woes are seen as a chance for other Asian carmakers such as Honda and Hyundai and maybe even the US Big Three.
But the biggest beneficiary in the long run might be European: Volkswagen.
The idea that the German group is now the official pretender to Toyota’s throne has long seemed laughable. When I started in 2004 for the FT in Frankfurt, VW’s very survival was at risk. When it, a few years later, set its sights on Toyota in terms of sales and profitability it all appeared so ridiculous that few reported the claims seriously.
After all, how could a partially state-owned company renowned for poor productivity challenge the world’s most profitable and efficient mass-market carmaker?
But just as Toyota has stumbled in this crisis, so VW has climbed. Its sales are booming in China, scrappage schemes boosted it in Europe and it has finally plugged gaps in its model line-up with cars like the Scirroco hatchback and the Tiguan small SUV.
In fact if its tie-up with Suzuki – that rarest of rare things in the car industry: an alliance that might actually make sense – comes off, it will already have passed Toyota in sales.
But if VW is the cocky kid on the street at the moment, big challenges remain. Its presence in the US is a joke for a global carmaker. It loses money and remains far behind the big carmakers in sales. I remember it introducing the so-called Moonraker plan to tailor cars more to American tastes. Naming your programme after one of the worst James Bond films was probably not a good idea.
It is also easy to imagine VW getting caught up in another bout of family politics with its extraordinary tie-up with Porsche (Porsche owns 50 per cent of VW, which now owns 50 per cent of Porsche; VW’s chief executive and finance director now also occupy the same positions at their biggest shareholder too).
Still, next month’s Geneva motor show is likely to give VW more chance to show off its new-found confidence. Toyota’s rear view mirror suddenly got very crowded.
