There is a fascinating analysis of how the financial crisis is affecting the United Arab Emirates – including Abu Dhabi and Dubai – in the FT this morning, co-written by Lionel Barber, our editor, who was visiting when a bank bail-out was being crafted.
It makes me think that my recent note on the booming residential property market in Abu Dhabi may have coincided with the top of the market. (I also like the photograph that goes with the article, of Roger Federer playing Andre Agassi on a helipad on top of the Burj Al Arab hotel.)
Indeed, the charts accompanying the piece show that residential property prices rose by 42 per cent between the first quarter of this year and the last quarter of 2007, while the rise from first to second quarter was 16 per cent. That is still zippy but the rate of growth is abating.
The thing that interested me most was the way in which Abu Dhabi, which has most of the UAE’s oil wealth, held its nose and came to the rescue of Dubai, its flashier and more debt dependent fellow emirate when doubts surfaced.
It shows that, even if there are many in Abu Dhabi who look askance at Dubai’s wilder and more thrusting side, the family of emirates came together at the crucial time.
Crises are relative. Another chart with the article records the current account surpluses of Gulf countries, with the UAE’s 22 per cent of GDP surplus this year more than matched by Kuwait (44 per cent) and Qatar (43 per cent).
These surpluses, however, depend to varying degrees on the oil price, which has been in rapid retreat recently. When I was in Dubai last year, the conventional wisdom was that the local economy, which depends heavily on trade in the region, would be fine while oil remained above $40 a barrel.
The futures market is now predicting that oil could reach $50 a barrel by the end of this year, which is getting uncomfortably close.




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