The move by ConocoPhillips of the US to split its upstream and downstream operations and become a “super-independent” oil company focussed on exploration feels like one of those turning points beloved by investment bankers.

Industry mergers and demergers tend to progress on a supercycle, in which investment bankers first persuade companies to merge in order to achieve scale and then later tell them they need to demerge to gain focus.

The wave of consolidation that created the supermajors now appears to be going into reverse. Marathon Oil’s demerger into exploration and refining companies has been followed by ConocoPhillips. Which of the supermajors will be next?

Of course, there is some logic to this – there always is. Exploration is becoming riskier and more expensive and needs greater capital investment, while refining has been in decline in western markets as the supermajors shed capacity.

But there is also fashion involved, encouraged by eager bankers keen to advise on transactions. Wait another decade and it will reverse again.