February 6, 2008
McCain pulls ahead; Clinton stops the rot
John McCain has scored impressive early successes, and is piling on the votes that matter with actual or projected wins in delegate-heavy New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Arizona, Oklahoma, Delaware and Connecticut. Mike Huckabee has done pretty well too, for somebody thought to be about to withdraw; he has wins in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and West Virginia (this last a clear case of tactical voting by McCain supporters). Partly because Huckabee has not collapsed, Mitt Romney is struggling. He has four wins so far. If he loses California and its haul of delegates to McCain–and with the polls just closed it seems to be going that way–it is hard to see how he stays in. On Intrade right now you can buy a Romney nomination for less than 5, down five during the course of the evening. McCain will cost you 90.
For the Democrats, it is all about managing expectations. It looks as though both sides are going to be able to claim success. Obama and Clinton are for the most part winning the states they expected to–with the edge to Clinton. She has won in Massachusetts: the polls consistently said she would, though the recent endorsements of the state’s governor, Deval Patrick, and a clutch of Kennedys had given Obama hope. Her winning margin in New Jersey looks to be wider than expected too–at least, if one’s expectations were based on the Obamania of the past several days. The polls have only just closed in California, but the signs are she is winning there too, thanks to strong support from Latino voters. Obama has done well across the South, and has won Connecticut (against the polls) and Delaware. Offered this a month ago, he would have accepted with gratitude. But a lot changed in that month.
To repeat, the delegate arithmetic for the Democrats is complicated, and way beyond me. Where that count will end up is anybody’s guess. (Intrade prices Clinton at 63 right now, up 9 on the night; Obama is down 9 at 37. If if I were free to, I might still buy Obama at that price.) Regardless, at least for now, I’d say the Obama momentum has been checked.
Since Huckabee is not a serious candidate outside the South, which would vote Republican in the fall even if one of the primates that Huckabee denies descent from were on the ticket, it is far too early to write off Romney. No one should, to paraphrase our current president, “misunderestimate” loathing for McCain among the Republican establishment because of his anti-pork barrel politics and support of campaign finance reform, or the even greater hatred for him among the anti-immigrant right, even though McCain has, almost unnoticed, abandoned his support of the “amnesty” that never was, until the Mexican border is “secure”, i.e. never. Write off Romney only when Fox News does, which is unlikely to be any time soon.
As for Obama, his biggest problem is not among white voters, but among Latinos and Asians. Ergo his loss in California. Right wing racists have done a lot to stir up tensions between blacks and Latinos on the immigration issue, and, to be fair, there would probably be a lot of tension between these two groups anyway, despite their long common history of being victims of white racism in America, even without the cynical right wing divide and conquer strategy. Winning over Latinos and Asians, some of whom may have given in to the historical immigrant tendency to “assimilate” by adopting the anti-black prejudices of the white majority, will be a big test of Obama’s skills as a “uniter”. I think he knows this and will be able to pass the test.
Posted by: algasema | February 6th, 2008 at 2:54 pm | Report this commentThank goodness you admit that the Democratic delegate tallies are complicated. I was beginning to feel like a dunderhead.
Is the Clintonito support in Ca. name-recognition or good memories of days past do you reckon?
Posted by: KatyZ, student, TrinityCollDublin | February 6th, 2008 at 5:06 pm | Report this commentObama is selling bottled air. I am astounded by the millions who are willing to buy into his demagoguery — though history should have sadly taught me otherwise.
Romney is an opportunist, as sleek and shallow as his (business) background would suggest.
Clinton is a self-righteous central planner on a par with Gordon Brown.
Huckabee is no Finn.
Which leaves McCain: it takes a raft of flawed candidates to allow for the election of a GOOD candidate (one flawed candidate is not enough — he usually gets elected; however many flawed candidates cancel each other out). Only when all else has been exhausted does history allow for such a possibility to emerge. We had to endure eight years of George W. Bush before we could GAIN McCAIN.
Posted by: Ron Cohen-Seban | February 6th, 2008 at 7:37 pm | Report this commentRon Cohen-Seban makes a good point about McCain. He has a well-deserved reputation for integrity (though he has changed positions on immigration and other issues a lot more than many people realize). But perhaps there is such a thing as too much honesty. Does America really want to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years as McCain has promised? Do we need more judges like Roberts, Alito, Scalia and Clarence Thomas, as McCain has pledged to appoint? If McCain is elected, we would have to hope that he was lying about these campaign promises, for the good of the country.
I am also more than a little suspicious about Giuliani’s endorsement of McCain. The quid pro quo might be having Rudy as attorney general, something that would make us long for the days of Gonzales and Ashcroft, when at least there was a little freedom left in America. With Giuliani, we would have a real police state. Maybe bottled air or “central planning” aren’t so bad after all, considering the alternatives.
Posted by: algasema | February 6th, 2008 at 8:56 pm | Report this commentClinton up 9 and Obama down 9 on Intrade? How are people figuring? Obama is up and in fact has surpassed HRC in the delegate count but for the establishment super delegates. He has won more states than Clinton including bell weather Missouri which has been wrong only once in the last presidential elections… a year ago when he announced it was deemed a fool’s errand. On month ago she purportedly led in double digits. She has had to loan her campaign $5 million because her large supporters have maxed out. He collected $32 million in small donations from 1/4 million individuals in January alone. Virtually none of Obama’s donors have maxed out. The pace now slows which plays to his strength since as people get to know him he does better as she thereby does worse. He polled 1.2 million votes in Illinois where his constituents know him best, besting her 2 to 1. She polled only 1 millions votes in NY state where her constituents know her best and she didn’t come close to so great a margin over Obama in her home state. Where can I buy the Obama stock?
Posted by: Annabella | February 7th, 2008 at 5:24 am | Report this comment