Surging expectations made Obama’s results on Super Tuesday seem a little disappointing, which is a measure of how far he’s come. I’d be concerned about lost momentum–except for the money. My take from this morning’s FT:
As recently as the morning after his big win in the South Carolina primary of January 26, if you had offered Barack Obama the slew of victories he achieved on Super Tuesday he would surely have been delighted to accept.
From that distance, winning the vote in 13 states to Hillary Clinton’s eight would have looked like a great success.But the count of delegates is what matters, and that will be closer. Indeed, thanks to Mrs Clinton’s wins in big states such as New York, New Jersey and, especially, California, and thanks also to the complex rules Democrats use to apportion delegates, she will probably come out slightly ahead on that measure.
Even so, a week ago Mr Obama would have been thrilled with his performance. But on the eve of Super Tuesday , Mr Obama hoped to do even better. His poll numbers had surged; big endorsements were piling up; and the Clintons’ aggressive campaign in South Carolina was getting a lot of criticism from other Democrats.
Nobody dared say it, but there seemed a chance he might sensationally win the whole contest and seize the nomination this week. California was crucial, but he lost there thanks to Mrs Clinton’s strong support among women and Latinos.
The Clinton campaign breathed again, and Mr Obama had to steady himself to celebrate his wins and fight on.
You can read the rest of the column here.
I just looked at Intrade: Obama at 56.9. Feels about right. (He was a good buy on Tuesday night at 37 after all.)
