The indispensable Charlie Cook, one of the country’s most astute (and probably most quoted) polling analysts, reflects on things that surprised him about the midterms, and subsequent developments.
It became clear the weekend before the general election that a separation was occurring between the fight for the House and the fight for the Senate. In the House, we saw a fully nationalized, parliamentary-style battle between the parties. In the Senate, we saw more of a collection of individual candidates and races that took on lives of their own. The separation took what was a plausible but uphill shot at the majority in the Senate and instead gave Republicans a very good night with a six-seat net gain.