Sir Howard Davies

Sir Howard Davies is director of The London School of Economics and Political Science

Three grace notes as this year’s Davos stumbles towards a gloomy conclusion.

There’s an old saw, often used in government circles, that when it comes to public policy debates, if you’re not at the table, you’re certain to be on the menu.

The bankers have learned that lesson this year. Their low-key presence has itself achieved a high profile in the public prints. In their absence all the world’s problems have been laid at their door. No one would deny that in this economic car crash a high percentage of the blame should be ascribed to the financial sector. But not 100 per cent, I think. Bank salaries were exaggerated, definitely, but others benefited from the boom also, and should similarly have known better. There is an irony that an event strongly supported by finance should have bitten the feeding hand so firmly.

It is becoming something of a cliche here to say the mood at this year’s Davos is so depressing that it is feeding the recession, rather than building a consensus on how we escape from our predicament. CEOs who arrived a little anxious about their prospects are now very worried. Those who arrived worried are now deeply depressed. Those who arrived depressed may not go home at all.

I began to wonder if this Spenglerian gloom was a financial sector phenomenon. Two invitations to talk to the automotive sector, and the Tourism and Travel group, gave me an opportunity to test that hypothesis. Sadly, it quickly folded.

Sessions with titles like “Reconfiguring the Global Financial Regulatory Architecture” are not always the most difficult to get into at Davos. This year is different. As the second G20 summit approaches there is a sense that decisions may be made which could significantly alter the environment within which financial firms work. So the topic seizes the attention here, especially of those who worry they may be brought into the net, like hedge funds and private equity firms. The private sector is not, however, defending the status quo. There is a widespread recognition that the system, especially in the US, but also in the EU, has not done what it says on the tin. And I detect an emerging consensus around three points.

Boris Johnson may well have sung for his supper, but not as beautifully as Bryn Terfel, who also told more modern jokes.

Wen Jiabao did not have them rolling in the aisles, exactly, but it was an assured performance. It’s the year of the Ox, as we know, and associated with persistence, sacrifice and plenty. The second seems to be well in hand all over the globe. We might say that governments are persistent in their attempts to stimulate their flagging economies. But “plenty” is associated with deficits more than anything else these days, which was not quite what he had in mind, I think.

It’s a grey day in Davos, in every possible sense. With their celebrated attention to detail, the Swiss have provided weather to match the mood. Once or twice, the sun threatened an appearance, but was quickly obscured. And there’s not a green shoot in sight.

Why are people here then, one might ask, if it’s gloom and doom from cappucino to gluwein? I guess the answer may simply be that they come in search of some mutual reassurance.

Davos blog 2009

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