Monthly Archives: July 2009

Dragonbeat is on a trip through the tea plantations of northern Hunan and will be off for two weeks, but will return with some thoughts on Tuesday August 11.

By Tom Miller

And lo, did Beijing wave its magic wand, and there was much rejoicing!

China’s economy grew 7.9 per cent faster in the second quarter of this year than it did during the same period last year. That means GDP expanded by 7.1 per cent in the first half and is now set to hit the government’s magic 8 per cent target for the year.

Beijing’s massive fiscal and monetary stimulus appears a roaring success. The combination of central government deficit spending and a tsunami of bank loans mean that the total amount of extra cash pumped into the economy above a business-as-usual scenario could be in the order of US$1,000bn this year alone.

But paying for stimulus projects is putting strain on local finances. Only around 30 per cent of the stimulus cash will come from central coffers, with the rest provided by local governments and companies, largely paid for by bank loans and bond issuances.

By Kam Wing Chan

Kam Wing Chan, professor of geography at the University of Washington, is an expert on Chinese population statistics and is a guest contributor to the Dragonbeat blog this week.

How big are Chinese cities? That depends on how you measure them.

Back in 2005, Time magazine proclaimed that Chongqing had become “the largest city not only in China but in the world”, with a population in excess of 30m.

But any Chinese citizen will tell you that Beijing and Shanghai, both with real urban populations below 15m, are larger than their supposed competitor in China’s southwest.

Common confusion over the true population size of Chongqing and other Chinese cities reflects the fact that China has highly complex and confusing urban and city statistical data.

By Tom Miller

Beijing and Shanghai are currently the only two Chinese cities that have unquestionable “megacity” status, with populations well in excess of 10m.

But over the next 15 years, 60 new cities with populations of 1.5m-5m are likely to sprout in China, including six new cities – Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan – with real urban populations exceeding 10m.

Managing this vast migration in a sustainable manner will require more than steel and cement: creating patterns of urban growth that use resources efficiently and avoid irreversible urban sprawl will determine whether the country’s cities become livable economic centres or urban dystopias fugged up with exhaust fumes.

Most important, creating a viable social welfare system may determine whether these mega-cities are paved with gold or strewn with beggars.

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