By Tom Miller
When the global financial crisis began to batter China’s exports, some Chinese officials saw it as a useful opportunity to dispense a large dose of bitter, but necessary, medicine.
Wang Yang, the Communist Party boss of Guangdong province and a confidant of China’s president Hu Jintao, clearly relished the chance to fulfill the province’s long-held ambition to replace low-end manufacturing with something bigger, more advanced and more “modern”.
“Without the current serious economic situation, it would be much more difficult for Guangdong to accomplish economic restructuring,” Mr Wang informed the local press.
Mr Wang called the plan to dump labour-intensive manufacturers and replace them with higher-value heavy industry and services “emptying the bird cage for new birds to settle down”. It sounded like a fine idea – so long as the new birds were ready.
Welcome to the Dragonbeat blog. Today, everyone with a serious interest in global issues needs to know about China. This blog expands the analysis of the Chinese economy previously found in the fortnightly column written by the China Economic Quarterly (CEQ) for FT.com. Dragonbeat’s principal writers are Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics Research & Advisory, the parent company of CEQ, and CEQ managing editor Tom Miller. By moving to a blog format where you can expect a weekly post from us every Monday, we hope to provide a space where readers everywhere can share their views on China’s economy and its impact on the world. Our first blog post, written by Arthur Kroeber, is below:
The global financial crisis poses two challenges for China: one of domestic economic management and another of international economic diplomacy. How it addresses these two challenges will in large measure determine whether China takes up what it considers to be its rightful place as one of the world’s leaders, or subsides instead into a Japan-like irrelevance despite the size of its economy.
The domestic challenge is straightforward: China must find a new engine of productivity and employment growth to replace a long-running export engine that is likely to be out of commission for several years.