By Kenneth Rogoff
The Bush administration was beside itself with glee earlier this month when it announced that the fiscal year 2007 federal deficit was set to fall to just over $200bn, or 1.5 per cent of US gross domestic product. Although the continuing deficit hardly makes the US a picture of fiscal prudence, the dollar amount is less than half what it was in 2004.
Publicly, some Democrats are still condemning Bush II profligacy and preaching a return to Clinton I fiscal conservatism. Privately, though, many are starting to question why a 2008 Democratic president should bother improving the government’s balance sheet if the end result is just a bigger pot for a future Republican president to lavish on his or her friends. Certainly the 2000s, even as long-term interest rates normalise, seem to have thrown cold water on the notion that sustained US budget deficits will automatically lead to high interest rates and low growth. Or have they?
First, the good news. Explosive financial globalisation has made US federal budget policy far less important as a determinant of global real interest rates. Instead of interest rates going up sharply, low levels of public and private saving in the US have helped sustain a massive current account deficit. Continuing foreign inflows are probably holding down US real interest rates by at least 1.5 per cent and possibly more.
And let us give credit where credit is due. The Bush administration’s decision to borrow massively, over a period where global long-term interest rates fell massively, was not a bad market call.
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