
By Martin Wolf
Hardly a week goes by without the implosion of a hedge fund. Last week it was Carlyle Capital, with an astonishing $31 of debt for each dollar of equity. But we should not be surprised. These collapses are inherent in the hedge-fund model. It is even conceivable that this model will join securitised subprime mortgages on the scrap heap.
Getting away with producing adulterated milk is hard; getting away with an investment strategy that adds no value is not. That was the point made by John Kay, in a superb column last week (this page, March 11). With the “right” fee structure mediocre investment managers may become rich as they ensure that their investors cease to remain so.
Two distinguished academics, Dean Foster at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Peyton Young of Oxford university and the Brookings Institution, explain the point beautifully*. They start by asking us to consider a rare event – that the stock market will fall by 20 per cent over the next 12 months, for example. They assume, too, that the options market prices this risk correctly, say at one in 10. An option costs $0.1 and pays out $1.
The remainder of this column can be read here. Debate from our panel of economists appears below.

Back to Economists' Forum homepage
Leading economists discuss topics raised by 
With most of the world’s big economies now officially out of recession, the Financial Times examines the legacy of the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s. See our in depth page:
News, data and opinions on market-moving economics. Read posts from Chris Giles, the FT's economics editor, Krishna Guha, US economics editor and Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief.