Monthly Archives: April 2011

By Roger E.A Farmer

The US is in the process of implementing the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. In the UK, the Vickers Commission has released interim recommendations to “ring-fence” the retail operations of banks from their investment banking activities. The Vickers report is a model of clarity and if the ring fence proposals are implemented, they will have bite. But there is already a push from Lloyds to weaken the proposals of the interim report and that is only the opening salvo. The pressure from financial institutions for lax regulation will be intense. That pressure should be resisted.

By Roger E. A. Farmer

In August of 2010, I argued on this Forum that the Fed should expand its policy of quantitative easing. By now the US is well into a programme that, by the end of June 2011, will have added $600bn to the Fed’s balance sheet. There is widespread discussion of what to do next.

Was QE successful? The facts suggest yes. There are signs of a nascent recovery in the US. Unemployment has fallen for the fourth month in a row and the economy is adding more than 200,000 jobs a month. Not enough to bring unemployment down anytime soon, but it’s a start. Core inflation, dangerously low just a few months ago, is beginning to pick up and there are signs that the US has avoided a Japan-style deflation trap.

By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda

Despite a number of recent shocks, the global economic recovery is getting on to a firmer footing.

The latest update of the Brookings Institution-FT Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER) indicates that resurgent job growth and rising business and consumer confidence are solidifying the recoveries in many advanced economies. Emerging markets are still doing well but some of the shine is coming off these economies as they tighten policies to cope with inflationary pressures.

The Overall Growth Index for the G20 economies shows a slight uptick in recent months, led by a gradual rebound in real activity. After the initial post-recession surge, financial markets have pulled back a bit, at least in terms of growth in stock market indexes and valuations. One bright spot is the resurgent business and consumer confidence in both advanced and emerging economies.

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