Category: Central banks

By Kevin P. Gallagher

At the recent annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank Taiwan’s Central Bank governor Perng Fai-nan urged emerging market nations in Asia to use capital controls to promote financial stability.

Yesterday, this call was echoed by Noeleen Heyzer, executive secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. She singled out China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and South Korea as the most vulnerable nations in need of controls

These statements would have been unthinkable a decade ago, and shows how much has changed.

Part of the stigma attached to capital controls has been dampened by the new tune at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a February 2010 staff position note and in the IMF‘s Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR) the IMF said that capital controls are a legitimate part of the toolkit for emerging markets. What’s more, the IMF’s economists found that those countries that deployed capital controls in the run-up to the current crisis were among the least hard hit from the global financial crisis.

It is time for the debate over capital controls to shift from whether to deploy controls to how and when.

The problem is that many of the world’s trade and investment treaties, especially those with the US, make it very difficult to effectively use capital controls.

Shankar Acharya

In March the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) published the balance of payments data for the October-December quarter of 2009. It elicited surprisingly little comment. Surprising, because for the second quarter in a row the current account deficit was well above 3 per cent of GDP.

By Michael Pomerleano

Developing and developed countries alike are inextricably connected in the international financial system. Yet this system is heading into strong headwinds and a dangerous period in which vulnerabilities will increase in the international financial system.

By Roger E. A Farmer

Anyone who thinks that the 2008 financial crisis is a new and unusual event on the world stage should read Walter Bagehot’s book, Lombard Street, written in 1873. Bagehot was editor-in-chief of The Economist magazine and the son-in-law of its founder James Wilson. He literally wrote the book on central banking.

By James Park

In October 2008, the flow of money stopped. As Lehman Brothers teetered on bankruptcy, the US financial system went into septic shock – from toxic assets representing worthless derivatives and collateralised debt obligations. To capture the gravity of the situation, the media latched onto metaphors.  Warren Buffett called that October the economic equivalent of a Pearl Harbor.

While Buffet’s martial analogy serves to highlight the fall in the inter-institutional lending, a more apropos analogy is that the financial system found itself in the intensive care unit with the diagnosis of septic shock.

Pinn

So what did I make of this year’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos? It felt like sitting at the bedside of somebody who had survived a heart attack but was unsure how long it would take to recover full vigour, if, indeed, he would at all. The mood of “Davos men” (yes, they mostly still are) was, as my colleague, Gideon Rachman, has pointed out, one of anxiety. Meanwhile, the participants in a still predominantly western meeting looked at the youthful vigour of emerging economies with admiration, envy and even fear.

For me, the highlight of the programme was the economic outlook session on Saturday.* This is not only because I was moderator. The starting point for the discussion was an obvious one: the policy interventions of late 2008 and 2009 have been a resounding success. The outcome has been a far briefer and shallower recession than most participants imagined a year ago. That is obvious from the successive consensus of forecasts for 2010. For almost every significant economy, the forecast for growth this year is higher than it was a year or even six months ago (see charts). The world economy survived the heart attack in the financial system.

The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

Ferguson illustration

Today, the people see in the financial sector not the skilful hands of erstwhile masters of the universe, but the grabbing hands of greedy ingrates. It is little wonder, then, that a desperate President Obama, battered by the voters in Massachusetts, has turned upon a group even less popular than his party. He has duly added the axe of Paul Volcker, 82-year-old former chairman of the Federal Reserve, to the regulatory scalpel offered by his Treasury secretary, Tim Geithner.

Mr Volcker is proposing a version of the distinction between commercial and investment banking brought into the US by the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. In announcing his new proposals last week, Mr Obama referred to a “Volcker Rule” that “banks will no longer be allowed to own, invest, or sponsor hedge funds, private equity funds, or proprietary trading operations for their own profit, unrelated to serving their customers”. Furthermore, added the president: “I’m also proposing that we prevent the further consolidation of our financial system.”

The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

The Greek government has promised to slash its fiscal deficit from an estimated 12.7 per cent of gross domestic product last year to 3 per cent in 2012. Is it plausible that this will happen? Not very. But Greece is merely the canary in the fiscal coal mine. Other eurozone members are also under pressure to slash fiscal deficits. What might such pressure do to vulnerable members, to the eurozone and to the world economy?

Having falsified its figures for years, violating the trust of its partners, Greece is in the doghouse. Yet, even if it bears much of the blame, the task it is undertaking is huge. In particular, unlike most countries with massive fiscal deficits – the UK, for example – Greece cannot offset the impact of fiscal tightening by loosening monetary policy or depreciating its currency.

The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

By Michael Pomerleano

The global financial crisis has revealed the “fallacy of composition” in the supervision of the financial system. While financial supervisors deemed each individual institution to be sound, risks were building in the system. Individual countries and the Financial Stability Board seek to develop a regulatory approach to stability at national and global level respectively. Here, I offer criteria for effective regulation of financial stability and review the proposed reforms in the European Union and the US.

By Richard Werner

Japan has declared the return of deflation. The country already holds the record for the number of consecutive years of deflation (seven, until 2006). Since its banking problems started after the bursting of the asset bubble of the 1980s, Japanese growth has remained below potential for almost twenty years. The recent financial crisis has not helped: industrial production has crashed and nominal gross domestic product plunged by 7 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2009. Meanwhile, the yen has soared close to its post-war high of Y79.75 on 19 April 1995 which shocked exporters at the time.

So when the Bank of Japan’s policy board scheduled an emergency meeting at the start of this month, some expected bold measures to stimulate demand, banish deflation and end the recession. The government had raised the stakes as its finance and deputy prime ministers demanded more action from the BoJ, even a return to a policy of ‘quantitative easing‘.

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