Victory in the cold war was a start as well as an ending

November 11th, 2009 1:25am

Pinn illustration

“A crisis is a strange way to celebrate an anniversary.” This is the wry judgment of Erik Berglöf, chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.* Yet a crisis is what we see in countries that began the march from communism two decades ago. So, has capitalism failed, as communism did? In a word, “no”. Some transition countries are in crisis; transition is not. The same judgment applies elsewhere: capitalist countries are in crisis; capitalism itself is not. But reform is necessary. The great virtue of liberal democracies and market economies is their ability to reform and adapt. They have shown these qualities before. They must do so once again.

For those born, like me, shortly after the second world war, the cold war was the defining intellectual and political struggle of our lifetimes. With the collapse of communism ended a catastrophic epoch of millenarian politics and the delusion of a rationally planned economy. The freedom offered by democracy and the prosperity supplied by markets won. But the fact that communism expired not with a bang, but with a whimper, we owe largely to Mikhail Gorbachev.

Yet 2009 is a sobering year from which to look back. A year ago, capitalism careered over a cliff. With vast effort, states have put it back on the road. According to Piergiorgio Alessandri and Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England, in a superb new paper**, the total gross value of interventions on behalf of banks has been $14,000bn (€9,400bn, £8,400bn). This is state socialism.

The remainder of the article can be read here. Debate from our panel of economists appears below.

Further reading

October 20th, 2009 5:53pm

From FT:

Time for the ECB to get serious about the overvalued euro - Willem Buiter

Why the euro is not the next global currency - Jean Pisani-Ferry and Adam Posen

Safe as houses - FT editorial on new mortgage regulation

From elsewhere:

The global crisis and central banks in Latin America: Breaking with the past - Luis I. Jácome H., VOXEU

The secret Paulson-Goldman meeting - Felix Salmon, Reuters

Why Is The Chamber Of Commerce Defending Big Banks? - Simon Johnson, Baseline Scenario

So Now We Know Why Lehman Went Under - Naked Capitalism

Risk of an ‘oil curse’ to Brazil is exaggerated

October 2nd, 2009 3:09pm

By Michael Alexeev and Robert Conrad

After Brazil’s recent large oil discoveries that may easily propel the country into the world’s top 10 by reserves, some economists and other commentators may have a stark warning for Brazilians: be afraid, be very afraid.  The oil curse is coming to Brasilia, and it will result in lower economic growth, corruption, political instability and a soaring real.

These warnings may be premature and, we believe, misleading. While the oil curse may have become accepted wisdom in some academic and political circles, it is not in line with recent economic research, including our own, and reasonably interpreted facts. Continue reading "Risk of an ‘oil curse’ to Brazil is exaggerated"

Free us from imprudent risk-aversion

October 1st, 2009 5:08pm

By Per Kurowski

There is no reason to believe the world would be better if financial regulators provided extra incentives to those who, perceived as having a lower default risk, are already favoured by lower interest rates, or punish further those who, perceived as more risky, are already punished by higher interest rates. In fact, the opposite is probably true. Continue reading "Free us from imprudent risk-aversion"

China’s stimulus shows the problem of success

August 26th, 2009 2:01am

By Yu Yongding

Ingram Pinn illustration

China has rebounded from the global slump with vigour. In the second quarter, its official figures showed year-on-year gross domestic product growth of 7.9 per cent. Those who doubt the quality of China’s macroeconomic statistics can check its physical statistics: in June, electricity production increased 5.2 per cent, reversing the falls of the previous eight months. It is almost certain that China’s GDP will grow more than 8 per cent this year. Continue reading "China’s stimulus shows the problem of success"

What India must do if it is to be an affluent country

July 8th, 2009 1:24am

Pinn illustration

What will the world economy – indeed, the world – look like after the financial crisis is over? Will this prove to be a mere blip or something more fundamental? Much of the answer will be provided by the performance of the two Asian giants, China and India. Rightly or wrongly, it is widely accepted that China will continue to grow very rapidly. But what is the likely future for India? Continue reading "What India must do if it is to be an affluent country"

US foreign policy and the global financial crisis

April 1st, 2009 7:29pm

The following is Martin Wolf’s testimony to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in the US, March 25, 2009

We are experiencing the most dangerous financial and economic crisis since the 1930s. But it is also a crisis for foreign policy: a deep recession will shake political stability a across the globe; and it threatens the long-standing US goal of an open and dynamic global economy. Perhaps most important, the US is currently seen as the source of the problem rather than the solution.

This crisis is, therefore, a devastating blow to US credibility and legitimacy across the world. If the US cannot manage free-market capitalism, who can? If free-market capitalism can bring such damage, why adopt it? If openness to the world economy brings such dangers, why risk it? As the shock turns to anger, not just in the US, but across the world, these questions are being asked. If the US wishes to obtain the right answers, it must address the crisis at home, and do what it can to rescue innocent victims abroad. This is not a matter of charity. It is a matter of enlightened self-interest.
Continue reading "US foreign policy and the global financial crisis"

How China helped create the macroeconomic backdrop for financial crisis

February 24th, 2009 7:00am

By Moritz Schularick

Over the past decade, China and other emerging markets accumulated foreign currency reserves to insure against the economic and political vagaries of financial globalisation. They were wise to do so. Countries with larger reserves are weathering the storm relatively better than those who have bought less insurance. Continue reading "How China helped create the macroeconomic backdrop for financial crisis"

Shaking up the World Bank

December 22nd, 2008 11:47am

By Ngaire Woods

The World Bank has announced a $2bn fast-track facility to speed its help to the world’s poorest countries hit by the financial crisis. The move highlights why it is time seriously to reform the World Bank’s governance. Continue reading "Shaking up the World Bank"

The IMF should guarantee emerging market debt

November 7th, 2008 8:00am

By Mario Blejer

The current financial crisis is putting substantial pressure on emerging markets. Many if not all face a serious risk of a sudden and severe slowdown in credit as a consequence of the withdrawal of international liquidity pools until recently available to these countries. The consequences of a credit crunch could be dire for both their public and corporate sector. This would ultimately stall the last engine of growth on which the world economy relies. The International Monetary Fund should quickly put together a preventive facility to restore the capacity of countries with healthy macroeconomic accounts to borrow from private capital markets. Continue reading "The IMF should guarantee emerging market debt"