China‘s engine seems to be sputtering back to life. If true, it will come as a relief to oil producers, for whom China has become the most important customer save the US.
The chart below – emailed in by Morgan Downey, author of Oil 101 – uses that data released by China’s General Administration of Customs to illustrate that country’s implied total oil demand grew by 0.5 per cent in February 2009 compared to February the previous year. It is the first year on year growth figure after three months of negative oil demand growth.

Mr Downey notes the Chinese data shows the lag between the bottoming of US total oil demand (the first week of October 2008) and Chinese demand growth was four months. This appears in sync with market anecdotes of the wave length of the economic slowdown (and possible recovery) moving across the globe, he says.
But two points of caution: The Lunar New Year fell in January this year and February last year, which distorts the numbers somewhat. And secondly, Chinese data are notoriously unreliable, so take the summer’s first swallow and bury it in a barrel of salt.
Leo Drollas, of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, predicted at the consulting firm’s seminar on oil demand this week, that the world would not again see the rapid growth Bric countries managed in recent years.”The story that China and India can consume ever more oil is a dangerous assumption,” he said.