Kate Mackenzie Opec further reduces 2009 demand forecast

The Opec monthly report is out, with another downward revision to their 2009 world oil demand forecast. They now say it demand be 1.37m barrels per day lower than 2008, compared to the previous forecast of 1.01m reduction last month.

World oil demand is already out of its high demand seasonality achieving nothing but devastating contraction. Oil demand is suffering more and more from the world economic recession. Recent data regarding the world economy indicates a delay in the recovery until 2010, leading to another downward revision in world oil demand of 0.4 mb/d. The worst hit was the OECD (North America and the Pacific) and China. Unlike last year, non-OECD oil demand growth has lost 90% of its strength this year. Asia’s oil demand has been forcefully hammered
by the world recession leading to an extra loss of 0.13 mb/d; hence, the 2009 world oil demand change is forecast at a minus 1.4 mb/d y-o-y to average 84.2 mb/d.

2008 demand was also revised down slightly, to a fall of 0.3m barrels per day on average.

Just a few days ago the IEA revised its forecast downwards to minus 2.4m b/d.