McKinsey has joined the oil crunch gang, pointing in a recent report to both the prospect of rising oil prices as demand improves, and the underlying increase in demand from China and other emerging markets:
As of late April 2009, the price of oil stood at around $50 a barrel—down from a high of nearly $150 a barrel in July 2008, though many observers doubt that oil demand will rebound enough after the current economic downturn to prompt another price shock. However, research from the McKinsey Global Institute conducted in 2008 and 2009 reveals the potential for a new spike in the price of oil between 2010 and 2013.
As Paul Kedrosky notes, the news is not all bad: McKinsey say it could be avoided with immediate efforts to redirect demand. The outlook for stability is a little depressing: after all, Opec and the IEA have both, thought from opposing camps, had stability as a common goal since the 1970s.
At least now Sarkozy is on the case.
Energy crunch time (FT Alphaville, 27/05/09)
IEA puts a number of oil crunch: three years to go (FT Energy Source, 26/05/09)
The disadvantages of low oil prices, a primer (FT Energy Source, 20/02/09)