On FT Energy Source:
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We’ve heard a lot about how OECD oil demand has peaked and was hit particularly hard by the recession, with most forecasts of growth coming solely from the developing world.
Stil, it’s stark to see how steep this year’s plunge has been. From Opec’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report: Read more
Royal Dutch Shell is moving into French Guyana. On the surface, western Europe’s biggest energy group buying into an exploration block is nothing terribly interesting. But, as with oil itself, the answer lies not at the surface, but deep below it.
By buying a 33 per cent interest Tullow’s Guyane Maritime Permit, Shell is buying into 32,000 square kilometres of rock in waters 2,000-3,000 metres deep off the coast off French Guyana, a small French colony north of Brazil. Shell is also buying into the idea that those rocks are similar to the ones in Ghana, that house the giant Jubilee field. Read more
A Lex note yesterday, for those who missed it, looks at the WEO and praises the International Energy Agency’s data. But it adds:
Like many forecasts, though, it makes the mistake of extrapolating recent trends too freely. For example, the IEA expects global oil production to rise from last year’s 85m barrels to 105m by 2030 while acknowledging that about two-thirds of this will come from fields yet to be found or developed. But at what cost?
Living with $300 crude is no more outlandish than suggesting a decade ago that $80 would be the new normal.
Energy markets, it says, have so many moving parts that long term forecasts are a mug’s game. This is a good point, and it highlights one of the great differences between the big energy forecasters and their critics: are we talking about a medium-term (and potentially temporary) supply crunch, or a permanent one? It’s widely agreed we are in ‘the era of high oil prices’, but how fast will those prices continue to rise, and will it be a steady or an increasingly volatile trajectory, full of more oil shocks that harm the still rather fragile world economy? Read more
Lex: World Energy Outlook
Forecasters may be underestimating how we will react to rising oil prices (FT)
IEA warns carbon price must double
Move to make high-tech solutions economically attractive (FT)
Shell says 2010 global investments down to $28bn
Ceo Peter Voser said He added that demand for oil is slowly improving (Reuters)
Venture capitalist to lead energy loan programs
Obama has hired VC to speed efforts to choose alternative-energy companies (WSJ)