We’ve heard a lot about how OECD oil demand has peaked and was hit particularly hard by the recession, with most forecasts of growth coming solely from the developing world.

Stil, it’s stark to see how steep this year’s plunge has been. From Opec’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report:

Source: Opec

The oil producers’ cartel tends to be restrained in its demand forecasts anyway, but it’s sounding particularly gloomy about the prospects for some of this lost demand ever coming back:

Moreover, even if the expected economic recovery materializes, it remains to be seen whether demand would be able to return to pre-crisis levels. Energy policies and behavioural changes are bound to have some impact on consumption and this will gradually feed into overall demand patterns, especially in key sectors such as transportation. However, it is still premature to assess the full effect of these changes.

Related links:

Oil demand peaksin the developed world, but natural gas comes into play (FT Energy Source, 27/10/09)
More gloom about oil prices and the recovery (FT Energy Source, 27/10/09)
Opec still has storage concerns (FT Energy Source)

A Lex note yesterday, for those who missed it, looks at the WEO and praises the International Energy Agency’s data. But it adds:

Like many forecasts, though, it makes the mistake of extrapolating recent trends too freely. For example, the IEA expects global oil production to rise from last year’s 85m barrels to 105m by 2030 while acknowledging that about two-thirds of this will come from fields yet to be found or developed. But at what cost?

It adds:

Living with $300 crude is no more outlandish than suggesting a decade ago that $80 would be the new normal.

Energy markets, it says, have so many moving parts that long term forecasts are a mug’s game.