Mexico’s declining oil output has been evident for some time now – and it suffered a symbolic setback when its massive Cantarell field fell so sharply that it lost its place as the country’s number one field.
Analysts at Barclays Capital point out that this year’s decline will actually be slightly less bad than last year’s:
For the year to date, Mexican oil output is down 6.3%. While this represents a deceleration compared to the 8.9% fall recorded in 2008, it is still a much faster pace of decline than that averaged since the start of the Mexican oil production downtrend in 2005.
But next year they forecast that the decline rate will again gather pace:
We expect Mexican oil output to continue to decline sharply, and we forecast the pace of fall to average 8.9% in 2010.
Adios, Cantarell (FT Energy Source, 12/02/09)
The world’s most successful, but worst paid oil manager? (FT Energy Source, 09/08/09)
Clarion call from Cantarell (Gregor, 23/08/09)