The recent auctions for the rights to develop Iraq’s oil fields have had many onlookers baffled; the politics are complex, and the prices agreed seemed incredibly low at first glance. Meanwhile the question of whether Iraq’s large and easily-accessible fields can be brought to much higher production levels very quickly is a vexxing issue for energy watchers everywhere – it could have a significant impact on total world output in the next decade.

There’s a good comment on an Oil Drum post from last month (H/T Chris Nelder) from someone claiming to have extensive knowledge of the bidding process puts the arguments this way:

Can these production rates actually be achieved in Iraq? On the ‘yes’ side of this case are the following arguments:

1. The IOCs had good information about these fields
2. The Contractor’s remuneration fee is based on a per-barrel fee which creates an economic incentive to achieve the PPT
3. The Contractors have a contractual obligation under the TSCs to reach the PPT. If they fail to do so, there are non-performance penalties under the TSC that grind down the already-modest remuneration fees, and other possible consequences

And against: