Energy analysts are increasingly pondering the likelihood of sanctions against Iran and what effect this might have on oil markets, given that the country is one of the world’s top crude exporters.
Now that US concerns over Russia opposing sanctions have eased somewhat, the diplomatic focus is on winning support from China for taking a tougher line – and on working out how to make any sanctions effective in hurting Iran’s nuclear development.
As foreign affairs columnist David Ignatius writes in the Washington Post, China is particularly susceptible to oil pressure from Iran, as it imports 540,000 barrels a day from the country. So the US has worked with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to counter this:
The UAE has already boosted its oil exports to China as part of this pressure campaign. Shipments have increased from about 50,000 barrels per day last year to 120,000 now, with a goal by year-end of up to 200,000 barrels. Over the next few years, the UAE is offering to increase that export volume to China to about 500,000 barrels per day, which would nearly equal the current Iranian total.
In addition, as the FT reported last week, efforts to persuade China to support new sanctions on Iran were added to by a delegation from Israel to China.
