Cries of derision aside, what came out of Copenhagen in terms of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – non-binding as they might be? More estimates are in, but few are optimistic.

The UN says that 110 countries, including all major emitters, have signed up for the accord. Andrew Light and Sean Pool at the Center for American Progress have updated their estimates, based on commitments made so far as part of the Copenhagen accord. They write that, if adhered to, those commitments would limit climate change to something like a 3 degree increase, as opposed to the 4.8 degrees that business-as-usual would imply. Still well short of the 2 degrees recommended by scientists.

Some are more optimistic – last month we wrote about a Peterson International Institute for Economics paper by Trevor Houser. This estimated that if the upper range of countries’ commitments are adhered to (many countries have given a range of emissions reductions targets, contingent on what everyone else commits to), and financing promised to help developing countries is delivered, then the reductions might come close to the 2020 total emissions target recommended to avoid an increase of more than 2 degrees.

Other estimates have been more pessimistic.