Cries of derision aside, what came out of Copenhagen in terms of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – non-binding as they might be? More estimates are in, but few are optimistic.
The UN says that 110 countries, including all major emitters, have signed up for the accord. Andrew Light and Sean Pool at the Center for American Progress have updated their estimates, based on commitments made so far as part of the Copenhagen accord. They write that, if adhered to, those commitments would limit climate change to something like a 3 degree increase, as opposed to the 4.8 degrees that business-as-usual would imply. Still well short of the 2 degrees recommended by scientists.
Some are more optimistic – last month we wrote about a Peterson International Institute for Economics paper by Trevor Houser. This estimated that if the upper range of countries’ commitments are adhered to (many countries have given a range of emissions reductions targets, contingent on what everyone else commits to), and financing promised to help developing countries is delivered, then the reductions might come close to the 2020 total emissions target recommended to avoid an increase of more than 2 degrees.
Other estimates have been more pessimistic. The most recent Project Catalyst report, after the ‘soft deadline’ of early February for submitting Copenhagen commitments, estimates those commitments so far, if followed, would only abate half of the 17 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases required to — again, representing a theoretical warming of 3 degrees celcius.
Pool and Light at CAP maintain some optimism, as Kevin Drum notes: they point out that the Copenhagen accord is not legally binding, so there is room for a more ambitious target that could get to 2 degrees. And a binding agreement a goal of the November/December Cancun meeting.
But it’s difficult not to forget that many are pessimistic about the chances of success at Cancun. And the pessimism keeps on coming: Yves de Boer, the outgoing head of the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change last week re-iterated that he believes Copenhagen will not form the basis of a binding agreement. He has hopes, however, that an agreement will emerge by late 2011.
Related links:
The post-Copenhagen decade (FT Energy Source)
Take your Cancun potshots here (FT Energy Source)
