Anyone hoping the EIA’s revision to its natural gas production survey methodology would be bullish for prices – or bearish for the future of shale gas – was very likely disappointed:
As Stephen Schork writes:
Analysts expected these revisions to be bullish. While January did see a small 0.6 Bcf/d revision lower, production in February still rose 1.6%. What’s more, assumptions about the glut of shale plays were vindicated – Louisiana saw a 5.7% increase, the largest of any state, which the DOE placed on expansion in the Haynesville shale.
Meanwhile the historical revisions were indeed significant, as promised:
The effect wasn’t contained to the US gas markets, either. Utilyx noted that UK prices were also affected:
Gas prompt and curve contracts traded lower day-on-day, as a collapse in the US Henry Hub prices caused a massive sell-off in the UK NBP. At 15:30 US gas storage data was published and showed a greater than forecast build in stocks, that caused NYMEX Henry Hub to fell with a 6.5 percent decrease in the front month contract.
Why keep drilling for natural gas? - FT Energy Source
Weekly crude oil storage data: What’s it good for? - FT Energy Source
A potentially bullish natural gas data mystery - FT Energy Source
Those volatile energy prices – and far less volatile consumption - FT Energy Source