China’s electric vehicle love affair: Enough to shrink gasoline demand

It’s not often we see oil analysts looking much at electric cars. But JBC Energy has made a reasonably bullish assessment, picking up on reports that Chinese electric vehicles will be subsidised to the tune of 60,000 yuan, or almost $9,000 each, and expand a pilot subsidy scheme from 13 cities to 20.

Noting also China’s ambitions to be the world’s biggest developer and manufacturer of electric vehicles, JBC analysts say they expect 9 per cent of Chinese passenger fleet to be electric by 2020.

And this would reduce gasoline consumption:

If the measure substantially increases sales of electrically powered vehicles and raises the share in the passenger car fleet to 15%, it would reduce the Middle Kingdom’s gasoline demand by 200,000 b/d or around 7.5% by 2020.

Meanwhile they also noted that Nissan’s Leaf could boost EV sales, saying “the (subsidised) price tag of around $25,000 in the US is surprisingly low”. This week Nissan said it had sold out of all its Leafs scheduled for production this year, a month after it first began accepting pre-orders.

Related links:

Electric vehicles Q&A: Batteries, lithium supplies, charging and more – FT Energy Source
Chinese electric vehicles (and jellyfish) rule world – FT Energy Source
BYD and the electric vehicle showdown – FT Energy Source

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