Daily Archives: February 22, 2011

Kiran Stacey

It is a very dangerous game to try and predict what will happen next in the Middle East and North Africa at the moment, so I report this with all the usual caveats. But John Roberts, an energy security specialist at Platts, has been watching the region for a long time, and he thinks that the possible removal of Muammar Gaddafi blows apart a lot of long-held assumptions about the region.

The key assumption as far as Libya was concerned was that with high oil revenues and a small population, Gaddafi was safe. If trouble started, he could always bribe people into remaining quiet – as he appears to have done recently, reportedly increasing wages and loans on offer to Libyans.

Breaking at pixel time — Reuters quoting an Italian government source that ‘informal’ Opec talks have begun on raising output if Libyan supply collapses (only for the Saudi oil minister to deny that Opec will consider extraordinary talks.)

Which is precisely what the supply has been doing (the country’s gas exports aren’t looking too hot either). Italy has every incentive to do something about it of course, given its ample Libyan exposure in both resources.

Kiran Stacey

Colonel Gaddafi’s rather strange television appearance last night failed to quell the Libyan insurrection, and this morning has seen a mounting number of oil companies depart the country and the oil price continue to surge.

The news for Opec in the short term is bad, with Libya currently accounting for 1.6m barrels a day of oil production. In the long term, it could be even worse, however, especially if trouble spreads to Kuwait, with 2.3m b/d, Iran, with 3.7m, or even the big one – Saudi Arabia, with 8.3m.

FT Energy Source

- Oil groups prepare to shut down in Libya – FT

- Eni at risk as anti-Gaddafi unrest spreads – Bloomberg

- Oil surges as Libyan protests threaten supply – FT

- Goldman sees Brent at $110 – Bloomberg

- Are we witnessing the start of a new oil price shock? – The Telegraph

- BP in $7.2bn partnership with Reliance – FT

- Ambani may add assets after BP deal doubles Reliance cash – Bloomberg

- Exploration expertise found after long search – FT

- BP discovers new shores to conquer – The Times (£)

- BP eyes emerging markets but politics holds risks – FT

- Dudley targeting value over volume – FT Lex

- ‘Dirty’ energy in China and India – NY Times Green blog

- Russian energy czar warns BP – WSJ (£)

- BHP in $4.7bn US shale gas assets deal – FT

- BHP’s shale gas play reveals its weaknesses – WSJ (£)

- Dynegy management to leave as sale collapses – FT

- Shell sells African businesses for $1bn – FT

- Tar sands row threatens Canada-EU trade deal – Reuters

- Battle over oil in Congo national park – FT

- UN sets out blueprint for green growth – The Guardian

- GOP: The dirty energy party – NY Times

- Wood Group eyes industry spending boost – FT

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