Carola Hoyos

Mexico is about to inch back its 1938 oil industry nationalisation that started the ball of nationalisations rolling across the oil-rich world. The finishing touches are being put on new contract rules for the junior partners of Pemex, the country’s national oil company, writes Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, the industry newsletter, in its current edition.

Carola Hoyos

Iraq has created much excitement among big international (and national) oil companies, which, over the past few months, have signed a plethora of deals to develop its biggest fields. Though the deals may lead to a big boost in oil production, they are not expected to be terribly profitable for the companies.

But what about the service industry? After a tough past year during which its customers have forced through price cuts as they have slashed costs amid a weaker refining and gas price environment, will Iraq be the industry’s El Dorado?

“With much of Iraq’s infrastructure damaged or destroyed by years of war and sanctions, foreign oil-field services firms are expected to play a pivotal role in providing equipment, services and personnel,” writes Petroleum Intelligence Weekly in its current issue.

Carola Hoyos

Oil companies rushed into Iraq, offering to rebuild its huge and dilapidated fields for such low fees (around $2 a barrel) that it made executives wince. Almost every big oil company did it. Executives argued quietly that they hoped Baghdad would remember their generosity in getting the country back on its feet once Iraq was ready to give them a chance to explore for new patches of its oil. The other upside of offering such services for a pittance was that Iraqi politicians gearing up for presidential elections next month may find it more difficult – though by no means impossible – to argue Iraq got taken for a ride from big bad oil and to overturn the deals.

But there is a very big, potentially global, downside people that in the industry are now beginning to quietly admit.

Carola Hoyos

When most everyone suspected US president George W Bush was determined to launch a military attack on Iraq in late 2002/early 2003 and the official White House line was still “no final decision has been made,” tell tale signs of an imminent invasion began to appear. Charities that knew the region and the issue of refugees were asked by high level US army officials to provide analysis on how to prepare for such human tragedy. Similar signs are appearing about the imminent invasion of international oil companies who have signed oil deals to help develop Iraq’s massive, but dilapidated oil fields.

Carola Hoyos

The Opec oil cartel is hardly known for its nimble decision making. Its country members are so entrenched in their ways that they still use a long-out-of-date set of production capacity numbers to decide how the group’s quota is divided among its members. But that may be about to change.

Carola Hoyos

Tullow’s decision to pre-empt Eni’s purchase of Heritage’s assets in Uganda has raised more questions than a US tax return. But there are two central ones more important than any other: Does Tullow have a firm agreement with a major oil company willing to buy half the fields on Uganda’s Lake Albert? and: Who will the Ugandan government side with, Eni or Tullow?

Aidan Heavey, chief executive of Tullow, tried hard to answer the first question when he said: “We are in a position right now that we can talk to the [Ugandan] government about the companies. This suggests that we already have firm offers from major companies.”

Carola Hoyos

January is a time for new resolutions and also for updates to supply/demand and pricing forecasts. The latest analysts to tweak their numbers are those at Sanford Bernstein. And, as Energy Source noted on Monday, the prospect of new Iraqi supplies was one of the reasons for making the amendments.

Carola Hoyos

Oil and natural gas prices started the year with a rally today, mainly because of the weather and perhaps a bit of bullish sentiment lent by the falling dollar, the unresolved oil pricing dispute between Belarus and Russia and the positive manufacturing news from China. But will these levels stick around much of this year, as traders and some notable onlookers expect?

Carola Hoyos

While delegates in Copenhagen are trying to hash out an deal to reduce carbon, oil companies in Baghdad over the past two days have swiftly agreed to several huge contracts that will extend the hydrocarbon age for decades to come.

The fierce competitiveness with which the world’s biggest oil companies elbowed each other aside for the chance to develop some of Iraq’s biggest oil fields could not have sent a clearer message: Oil is here to stay, with or without an agreement forged at Copenhagen.

Carola Hoyos

ExxonMobil today approved the development of its $15bn liquefied natural gas project in Papua New Guinea, potentially doubling the size of the country’s economy. It is the second final investment decision at a big LNG project this year and goes ahead despite warnings that the world could suffer a gas glut because of the recent drop in demand, especially in the US.

But Exxon and its partners are confident they have lined up customers in Asia, which will receive the gas by 2013-2014 when construction is completed.

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