Spot News

November 13th, 2009 11:04am

Renewables projects face risk-averse culture
Why new US developments struggle to get financing (FT)

Chevron Urges Asia Energy Security
Asian governments need to act more aggressively, says groups official (WSJ)

Weak oil prices hit Repsol results
latest oil and gas group to unveil a sharp year-on-year drop in profits (FT)

OPEC supply may rise from nine-month high, IEA says
The group may increase it further at a meeting next month (Bloomberg)

Mixed fortunes seen by Centrica
Profits to drop 4% but residential earnings to rise (FT)

Saudi Arabia expands oil, gas plants for $100bn
Al-Naimi talks about upgrade plans (Bloomberg) Continue reading "Spot News"

Everything peaks, eventually

November 12th, 2009 5:55pm

This chart is about a year old but is doing the rounds today (we found it via Drum Beat) and it seemed too good to pass up:

Overthinkingit.com

Source: Overthinkingit.com

The data used were apparently sourced from Rolling Stone Magazine and the EIA.

It makes interesting food for thought (leaving aside, perhaps, the fact that the Rolling Stone 500 is entirely subjective). The author writes:

By the end of the 70’s, The Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, the Motown greats, and other genre innovators quickly extracted the best their respective genres** had to offer, leaving little supply for future musicians. The counterargument to all of this, of course, is that the RS 500 skews unfairly towards the earliest, most groundbreaking works of music and unfairly penalizes later creations for simply coming after other works.  For example, why was Green Day shut out of the list?

Read more here.

The Source: Mongolian coal; Oil demand returns; Electric cars not always good

November 12th, 2009 3:38pm

On FT Energy Source:

High oil prices not so disconnected?

The next coal frontier: Mongolia

Markets: WTI criticised

Asian climate change risk and Ukrainian gas tension in Spot News

Further reading:

France’s nuclear availability forecast for 2009 reduced (Argus)

A new geopolitical Jevons Paradox? A look at the non-OECD demand (The Oil Drum)

Could electric cars in Europe speed climate change?  (No, says industry) (Environmental Transport Association, BusinessGreen)

“In the world of OPEC, the word production can mean different things” (The Barrel/Platts)

It had to happen: Nappies (aka diapers) as biomass power feedstock (CleanTechnica)

E.On and GE in more Europe/US wind turbine collaboration (OilVoice)

BP faces damages claim over pipeline through Colombian farmland (Guardian)

Peak oil? “I don’t believe in it at all“, says Stephen Schork (SeekingAlpha)

High oil prices not so disconnected?

November 12th, 2009 1:56pm

There’s been no shortage of commentators and analysts pointing out that oil prices have been unjustifiably high for the past few months. While oil and refined products in storage are at record levels in many parts of the world, and signs of economic recovery have been mild at best, the doubling from about $30 per barrel early this year to almost $80 doesn’t reflect the fundamental nature of the oil market, many said.

The IEA however is now of a view (with the likes of Goldman Sachs) that these relatively high oil prices may be justified after all.

The reasons? Partly it’s Opec quota reductions, which briefly reached an unusually high level of compliance in the first quarter. Partly, it’s the much-feared decline of investment in production, which has apparently been exacerbated by the fact that contractor prices didn’t fall as much as many oil companies had hoped. Continue reading "High oil prices not so disconnected?"

The Source: Oil supply and demand extravaganza

November 11th, 2009 4:08pm

On FT Energy Source:

Opec gloomy on demand destruction

Shell drinks the Anadarko/Tullow Kool-Aid

Why the US might (not) pressure the IEA

The perils of forecasting

Why CO2 prices have to go much higher

Next-generation biofuels update

European long-distance grid breakthrough in Spot news

Further reading:

Peak demand or peak consumption? (The Oil Drum)

A landmark in Chinese oil refining (Michael Economides)

Abu Dhabi may use oil at power plant (The National)

Green NIMBYism (CNet)

The way we drive now (Energy Outlook)

Will talking change anyone’s mind about climate change? (Bright Green Blog/Christian Science Monitor)

Will rising oil prices derail the economy? (Econbrowser)

Kenya’s wind power project snagged (AFP)

Why Gazprom should fear a gas glut (Environmental Capital/WSJ)

Opec gloomy on demand destruction

November 11th, 2009 2:11pm

We’ve heard a lot about how OECD oil demand has peaked and was hit particularly hard by the recession, with most forecasts of growth coming solely from the developing world.

Stil, it’s stark to see how steep this year’s plunge has been. From Opec’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report:

Opec

Source: Opec

The oil producers’ cartel tends to be restrained in its demand forecasts anyway, but it’s sounding particularly gloomy about the prospects for some of this lost demand ever coming back:

Moreover, even if the expected economic recovery materializes, it remains to be seen whether demand would be able to return to pre-crisis levels. Energy policies and behavioural changes are bound to have some impact on consumption and this will gradually feed into overall demand patterns, especially in key sectors such as transportation. However, it is still premature to assess the full effect of these changes.

Related links:

Oil demand peaksin the developed world, but natural gas comes into play (FT Energy Source, 27/10/09)
More gloom about oil prices and the recovery (FT Energy Source, 27/10/09)
Opec still has storage concerns (FT Energy Source)

The perils of forecasting

November 11th, 2009 11:35am

A Lex note yesterday, for those who missed it, looks at the WEO and praises the International Energy Agency’s data. But it adds:

Like many forecasts, though, it makes the mistake of extrapolating recent trends too freely. For example, the IEA expects global oil production to rise from last year’s 85m barrels to 105m by 2030 while acknowledging that about two-thirds of this will come from fields yet to be found or developed. But at what cost?

It adds:

Living with $300 crude is no more outlandish than suggesting a decade ago that $80 would be the new normal.

Energy markets, it says, have so many moving parts that long term forecasts are a mug’s game. Continue reading "The perils of forecasting"

Did the US pressure the IEA over oil supply forecasts?

November 10th, 2009 7:30pm

Claims that the US has pressured the IEA to put a more optimistic spin on future oil supplies gained a huge amount of attention today. But just how likely a scenario is that?

Continue reading "Did the US pressure the IEA over oil supply forecasts?"

The Source: IEA special edition

November 10th, 2009 4:07pm

Fossil fuel use must peak by 2020, warns IEA

Ask Dr Fatih Birol a question about the new IEA report

Don’t cry for Opec - even in a low-carbon future

IEA warns non-Opec oil supply will peak next year

Goldman still bullish on commodities

Tropical storms and UK nuclear in Spot news

How soon will the UK get its new energy policies?

How to solve ‘carbon leakage’ with carbon trading

Further reading:

Spain sets a new wind-powered record: more than 50% (Environmental Capital/WSJ)

A bright nuclear future: True or false? (Guardian)

More on the Spanish green jobs report (Houston Chronicle)

Power for US from Russia’s old nuclear weapons (NY Times)

EPA sends greenhouse gas finding to White House (BNet)

Build your own solar panels (Times Online)

Australia invests in world’s first utility-scale wave power project (Yale 360)

Don’t cry for Opec producers - even in a low-carbon future

November 10th, 2009 2:51pm

How much does the world’s oil-producing bloc have to fear from an international agreement (or perhaps initially, a framework) on carbon dioxide emissions?

Opec members have signalled they are concerned about a Copenhagen agreement before - secretary-general Abdalla Salem El Badri said in September that oil producing countries should not be penalised for what they do.

However the IEA’s new report shows that even in its ‘450 scenario’ - in which governments make big efforts to limit carbon dioxide concentrations to 450 parts per million - Opec production still increases quite significantly, to 43m barrels per day in 2020 and 48m b/d in 2030. Continue reading "Don’t cry for Opec producers - even in a low-carbon future"