Pity the poor equity researchers. You spend weeks honing your models, inputting your data and finessing your conclusions, knowing all the while they could be blown completely off course by something as uncontrollable as the weather.
Well the team at Credit Suisse are taking no chances. And rather than watching the regular weather forecasters, which after all, predict only days in advance, they have kept their eyes on the most reliable source the US has to offer: groundhogs.
As if there were not enough gas in the US.
The US Geological Survey has discovered that much of what it thought was oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is actually gas. It says in a new report that new estimates are for 896m barrels of conventional, undiscovered oil and 53 trillion cubic feet of conventional, undiscovered, non-associated gas within the reserve and adjacent state waters.
This compares with estimates made in 2002 of 10.6bn barrels of oil. The new estimate, roughly 10 per cent of the 2002 estimate, is due primarily to new data from recent exploration drilling that revealed gas rather than oil in much of the reserve. Nonetheless, the new assessment also indicates 8 trillion cubic feet less gas than the 2002 estimate of 61 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, conventional, non-associated gas. Non-associated means there is little to no crude oil in the reservoir.
Yet that is still a surfeit of gas and, as such, is just one more reason why the US should take advantage of its broad gas reserves by offering government incentives to build an energy infrastructure to use its gas.