Jorma Ollila, Royal Dutch Shell’s chairman, may joke about being a "modest, down-to-earth Finn", but his record at Nokia gives him great credentials as a thinker on technology and strategy.

I spoke to him at his office in the Hague, for his first interview since taking the job, and we have put further quotes from what was a long and wide-ranging interview here. One striking quote: "I think it’s a believable scenario that in 2050, renewables will form 30 per cent of the energy source for mankind." What is more, he added, they could be 30 per cent of Shell’s business too.

Having chewed over Tuesday’s first quarter results from BP, featuring a 17 per cent drop in profits, Deutsche Bank’s analyst Lucas Herrmann has downgraded his recommendation from a hold to a buy, suggesting a price target for the shares of 580p, against a close on Tuesday of 568.5p.

Looking further ahead, however, he argues:

"Fortunately, where the company’s refining activities continue to attract more attention than they ought, in E&P the recently espoused ‘end of year’ timelines around the key growth projects continue to appear conservative."

Those projects include Atlantis in the Gulf of Mexico and Greater Plutonio and Rosa in Angola.

When the full-year results came out in February, and BP set out some very conservative guidance on future production, we suggested that the company might be trying to give the best possible platform for Tony Hayward to report some good news (requires subscription) after he takes over in August. It has not been doing much to accentuate the positive since then, promising a "year of consolidation" in 2007.

Another analyst, Peter Hitchens of Teather & Greenwood, suggests in a note today that that means there could be better news to come as we head into 2008:

"We believe that BP will perform in line with its peers for the next six months as the company is in a transition period. John Browne will step down as chief executive in July and will be replaced by Tony Hayward. Once Hayward takes full control, we believe the new strategy will start to emerge and could lead to some outperformance."

Total, the French oil group, today published its quarterly market indicators, a table of numbers that show the general price environment in which the company, and indeed the industry, operated from January until March 2007. Earlier this month, BP did the same, using slightly different benchmarks. Oil and gas prices dropped, while European refining margins rose, Total showed. But, in contrast to its peers, Total is expected to impress with its volume growth when it announces its quarterly earningson May 4, analysts at Citigroup said in a note today. That is good news for Total, which has been in the news recently mainly because of investigations into its alleged corruption in Iran and Iraq. Another bit of good news for the company today was Iran’s announcement that it had extended the company’s deadline to decide whether it to embark on the multi-billion-dollar South Pars gas project. The managing director of Iran’s national oil company told wires in Dubai that Total is likely to make up its mind within 3-4 months. 

BP executives will again be open to grilling by US lawyers about their gung-ho PR tactics, a Galveston, Texas judge has ruled. Last October the energy group sent out 7,000 flyers to local residents about its efforts to improve safety following the fatal explosion at its Texas City refinery in March 2005, the Houston Chronicle reports today. In November, BP owned up to sending out 900 flyers in what a district judge called a stunt that could influence jury selection. That case was settled in November. The revelation comes just days before Thursday’s AGM where some BP investors are expected to oppose the remuneration package of Lord Browne, the company’s outgoing chief executive, because they say it does not adequately reflect BP’s safety lapses.