On day two of the Oil & Money conference in London, Christophe de Margerie, Total’s chief executive, dropped something of a bombshell when he said he saw predictions that world oil output could rise to 100m barrels per day as the "optimistic" case.

Given that the International Energy Agency, and other official bodies are predicting a rise to 115m b/d or more, that is a strikingly low number.

As with the IEA’s own concerns about production, the issue is not so much the geology of oil reserves - the "below ground" factors, as they are known - although they play a part in Mr de Margerie’s story. More important, however, are the "above ground" factors: the lack of capacity in the industry to develop resources sufficiently quickly, and the geo-political problems that have hit production in countries as diverse as Nigeria, Venezuela, and Iraq.

What that means for prices, Mr de Margerie wouldn’t say. Predicting oil prices is a mug’s game, and Mr de Margerie has been around too long to get involved in it. As Albert Helmig, president of Grey House, a consultancy, put it: "The only thing I can guarantee is that the price will be different tomorrow. [There is] a lot of noise, little fact."

That said, however, it is clear that Mr de Margerie’s view of supply potential implies that prices will oscillate around a much higher central point than in the past.

As Burma’s ruling junta cracks down on protesters, killing nine yesterday, calls to do more to put pressure on the regime in terms of financial sanctions are growing, and putting the spotlight on the role played by Total and Chevron. They are partners in the Yadana natural gas project, which last year produced almost half of Burma’s gas, and is said to deliver up to $400m a year in government revenues.

Total, which leads the project, has engaged extensively with its critics, but this week again rejected the idea of pulling out.

By a quirk of history, France’s foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, wrote a report on Burma for Total back in 2003. It commissioned him to give an independent view of its involvement when he was a human rights consultant. The report is available at the extensive section of Total’s corporate website detailing the company’s position on Burma.

Chevron, meanwhile, has been keeping a low profile. It acquired its stake somewhat accidentally, when it bought Unocal in 2005. Texaco, later bought by Chevron, pulled out of Burma in 1997. Total seems rather more  accustomed to  dealing with controversial regimes.

Burma’s gas resources - not massive but not insignificant either, as the BP review of energy shows - are certainly a complicating factor in dealing with the regime. Thailand is the biggest buyer of its gas exports, and China and to a lesser extent India have been moving in, too, and their companies are a lot less susceptible to public opinion than Total or Chevron. When it argues that things would be worse if it pulled out, Total may well be right.

Hubris and nemesis department. On Tuesday, I sat in a hall at the Offshore Europe conference hearing Xavier Preel of Total waxing lyrical about the French oil major’s superior project execution and host country relationships; on Wednesday morning, his boss Christophe de Margerie was admitting that Total’s production growth projections have been over-optimistic.

As the FT story explains, it is not all Total’s own fault. Higher oil prices mean more oil goes to Total’s partners in production sharing contracts, which accounts for about half the cut in projected output. And a slowdown from 5 per cent to 4 per cent average annual volume growth during 2006-10 is hardly devastating: Total will still comfortably beat BP and Royal Dutch Shell over that period, and perhaps even ExxonMobil. (FT stories may require subscription.)

And yet, Total’s admission is an important piece of news. It is yet more evidence of the severity challenge facing the oil majors, and shows how difficult it is to buck the trend, however good you may think you are. It is also another reason why there will be a few barrels more missing from forecasts of oil supply out to the end of the decade, and another reason why - barring a global economic downturn - prices are likely to stay high.   

UPDATE: Total has some good documentation and a webcast presentation on its website.