Dollar

James Mackintosh

Some smart hedge funds have already pulled out of the crushing attack on Greece, fearing that the market logic could be ovewhelmed by political intervention, as I pointed out earlier this week.

On Thursday night Christine Lagarde raised exactly this issue on the BBC (link may not be accessible from outside the UK).

Asked what message the eurozone countries wanted to send to “speculators”, she said (my transcription):

Number one I think they had better be careful. There is clearly a statement of solidarity – we are closing ranks. Whether we are big member states or small member states we are all in this together and we are not going to let any of us down. That’s point number one.

Point number two, I think that, you know, what we are going to take away from this crisis is certainly a second look at the validity, the solidity of CDS on sovereign debt. Clearly we need to look deeply at that and propose changes.

Number three, it confirms our determination to actually bring more transparency into this equation.

James Mackintosh

The start of work on an expensive new headquarters often marks the high tide for a company, from Time Warner and the New York Times through Volkswagen (with its VW Autostadt) and others.

So it is appropriate that it was only in December that the European Central Bank announced plans to press ahead with a new €500m HQ. The headquarters curse has already hit: the break-up of the eurozone headed by the ECB has become the subject of frenetic discussions following the financial crisis in Greece and the spread of worries to Spain and Portugal. The value of the single currency has plunged from an 18-month peak of $1.50, almost exactly on the day of the HQ announcement, to $1.37. Hedge funds have record levels of short positions betting on further declines, as the Greek financial crisis infects Spain and Portugal.

Euro decline

Many outside the single currency region are gloating, highlighting the unsustainable pressures caused by putting countries with such different performances as Greece and Germany under the same monetary regime. They are wrong to do so: the crisis may be bad for the euro but that is bad news for competitors, such as the US and UK, too.

In effect, prices of exports to the eurozone countries have risen about 9% since December. The new weakness of the euro will hinder the growing US export machine, and stamp on the green shoots of manufacturing confidence in Britain. In the race to export themselves back to health, Britain and America just lost their advantage. The only consolation is that the euro is reversing some of its gains, and had been a lot weaker a year ago.

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