The yen’s collapse was rudely interrupted on Tuesday. James Mackintosh, investment editor, points out that the yen’s premium as a haven from the global crisis has now evaporated, and examines the implications for the carry trade.
Goldman Sachs’ strategists are currently roaming Europe on their annual Global Strategy roadshow. As nobody can lightly ignore what Goldman is saying, the themes emerging from the London event were interesting.
Of particular concern are the prospects for corporate earnings; Japan; and the hope that 2013 will at last be the year for a “great rotation” out of bonds and into stocks.
On earnings, David Kostin, their US equity strategist, explains their view in the video below. In a nutshell, margins are high, but without a recession (which nobody expects) there is no need for a sharp reversion to the mean. Instead, forces such as shale gas will help profitability, but there will be little increase in margins as in many sectors they are already at historical highs. So margins stay at their plateau, and earnings rise gently thanks to the gentle recovery of the economy.
On Japan, bullishness is what might almost be called a “consensus contrarian” call. Many people are talking bullishly about Japan, despite its decades of under-performance. So many, indeed, that it is hard to call this call contrarian any more. Read more
If you go down to the woods today, you won’t need a disguise: the bears are all at their annual picnic (OK, conference) in west London, led by uber-bear Albert Edwards of Société Générale.
He’s picked a good day to warn of looming disaster: yet another indicator suggests investor complacency is approaching danger levels thanks to the new year rally.
Short-term momentum indicators were flashing red in Europe last week, and even after falling back slightly remain very high. Read more