Daily Archives: October 2, 2013

John Authers

Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear seems to be quite a cult classic among investors.Anatomy of the Bear I regularly see it on portfolio managers’ desks. Meanwhile, his video interviews with the FT in the years since the crisis also seem to have created quite a cult following. This week he completed his fourth interview with us since 1999, and he is sticking to his claim, based on historical experience, that the S&P 500 will need to slide down below 500 once more before this bear market is over (he did say 400 in the book).

How much has his story changed, and how seriously should we take him? This obviously divides opinion. So here are his previous interviews with us, in chronological order. Read more

James Mackintosh

With the US government missing in action, the statisticians who usually draw up Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers are kicking their heels at home. In their absence, the market is likely to turn to today’s estimates from payrolls processor ADP – which has direct access to data on about a fifth of total pay packets.

This should make ADP’s numbers more reliable than those from the government. But because investors focus on the government survey, rather than ADP, what really matters is how close the ADP estimates are to the official figures. At first glance they look pretty good:

ADP v non-farm payrolls Read more