James Mackintosh

I have a lot of sympathy with the explosion of outrage both within Cyprus and internationally at the decision to default on tax depositors of its banks.

It is just wrong that depositors, even large Russian tax-avoiders, are suffering while other senior bank creditors are excluded. It is wrong that Greek depositors in Cypriot banks are excluded, even though it was the Greek assets bought in large part with those deposits which caused a lot of the problems. And it is particularly wrong that small depositors are being hit, making a mockery of the deposit guarantee scheme.

Yet, there is risk in everything, and depositors were being compensated for the riskiness of Cypriot banks through higher interest rates. This chart shows the deposit rates paid on fixed-term deposits of less than a year (much of Cypriot deposits are fixed term, although even overnight deposits pay more interest than the rest of the eurozone).

Deposit rates in Cyprus and Germany

Now, it is fair to say depositors generally don’t realise the risks they are running. Even when they do realise, they mostly don’t care (as Icesave showed in the UK): that’s the whole point of deposit guarantee schemes, after all. But in fact the compensation paid for the risk that it turned out depositors were running was about right. Read more

James Mackintosh

Just a quick update for those who love Iceland as a model (a category which unites the unlikely pair of uber-Keynesian Paul Krugman and Conservative eurosceptic Dan Hannan).

After its disastrous banking and property bubble and bust, house prices have been growing strongly again, and are within a whisker of their 2008 highs – in stark contrast to Ireland and Spain. All three (with two different measures of Spanish housing) are shown in this chart, and Iceland’s break from the Irish/Spanish pattern is clear:

House prices Iceland, Ireland, Spain

This, just like the country’s return to economic growth, looks like another justification for Iceland’s decision to refuse to bail out its banks, unlike most of the rest of the world.

Now, I’m no friend of bank bailouts, and would much rather see middle-class bank creditors take losses than taxes rise on the poor to subsidise those creditors.

But things aren’t quite as simple as the housing chart shows. As well as cleaning up its banking system through a gigantic default, in large part on foreigners, Iceland’s krona has collapsed.

When measured in foreign currencies, the people of the island are far poorer than they were, something which really matters for a place which imports virtually everything it needs other than fish and electricity.

One example is the import of cars: for the four years since 2008, the total tonnage of cars (I know, funny measure, but that’s how Iceland provides it) imported is lower than for the single year of 2006. And this isn’t only because of the extremes of the bubble: last year, even as Iceland began to recover and imports picked up, saw fewer cars imported than in any year from 1999 to the collapse.

Adjusting Icelandic house prices into euros, then, allows a fairer comparison with Spain and Ireland’s outcomes (although not a way Icelandic residents will think about it, of course). And it tells quite a different story:

Now, this doesn’t matter to Icelandic homeowners paid in krona. But it does put a bit of a damper on the idea that Iceland is having a strong recovery.

Measuring in krona, even Spanish house prices have started to rise, as you see in this next chart: Read more

James Mackintosh

To answer the question of who owns corporate America, we turn naturally enough to Goldman Sachs. In spite of all the “vampire squid” hype, the answer isn’t GS: but it does have an excellent summary of how ownership has changed (click on the chart for a bigger version).

Ownership of corporate America Read more

James Mackintosh

Reasons to worry: the S&P 500 is back above its dotcom bubble high today and just 1.4 per cent below its 2007 credit bubble high of 1,576.

This makes investors feel happy, and when they are happy they tend to buy more shares. In this sense equities are a Giffen good like a Rolls-Royce: the higher the price, the more people want them. Until, suddenly, they don’t.

For those who believe the market is truly efficient, rising shares merely reflect a changed reality, and the potential gains from here are just as good as at any other time. But the market is not truly efficient. Investors are growing complacent, which adds to the risk of a correction.

The market may well carry on up (one driver would be the combination of good news on the economy and further signs from the Fed that it will not tighten monetary policy), but the fact of its having risen should play no part in a decision to invest, momentum trading strategies aside. Watch yourself. The time to buy is when shares are cheap, not when they are expensive. Shares, particularly in the US, clearly offer less upside than they did a few months ago.

We now face a giant triple top in the markets, as this chart of the S&P 500 shows:

S&P 500 triple top Read more

James Mackintosh

Ireland’s recent history is a story of hopes dashed. Hope is now being stoked again, not least by those with the most interest in being positive: the Irish government and European lenders.

For Europe, Ireland is the poster child for austerity and must, just must, be recovering. Some positive jobs figures, showing the first growth in employment since 2008 (on which more later) have prompted what passes for elation in the depression-hit island.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso led the cheering this week on a visit to Dublin, saying Ireland’s economy “is turning the corner”.

It shows that the programmes can work. It shows that there can be light at the end of the tunnel.

When there’s a determination we can achieve results. This is a message that’s valid for Ireland and other countries that are going through reforms.

Of course, he wants to believe this. Europe desperately needs a success story to set against the anti-austerity vote in Italy, yet more gloom in Greece and a worsening economic outlook for the eurozone.

But the bond markets agree, and have done for months. Irish 8-year yields (its benchmark) stand at 3.7 per cent, lower than Spain and Italy. The country has successfully returned to bond markets, and hopes to bring in a 10-year benchmark before the end of June. Even the inconclusive Italian elections prompted only a slight wobble.

So, have the markets become too optimistic? Below is a rather longer than usual read on Ireland and the wider eurozone issues. Read more

James Mackintosh

Blame the collapse of the USSR: an entire generation of Americans who might once have specialised in Kremlinology now devotes its time to parsing the messages that filter out of the US Federal Reserve.

Minutes of the last Fed meeting released yesterday hammered markets. As usual, when the US sneezed (the S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent) Europe caught a cold (the Stoxx 50 index is off 2.1 per cent as I write and poor old Italy is off almost 3 per cent). Read more

James Mackintosh

If you want to invest like Warren Buffett, there are quite literally hundreds of authors out there ready to help. In the past year alone, two dozen books have been published on the Sage of Omaha, covering everything from his travels to the women he employs.

After Thursday’s acquisition of HJ Heinz for $28bn, I thought it was worth pulling up a list of similar stocks for those who missed Heinz (and its 20% share price pop). Read more

James Mackintosh

Brits wanting a holiday in the sun have to stump up a lot more since the pound’s crash during the financial crisis. Even after a partial recovery, the pound remains down almost a fifth in real terms against its trading partners.

On the plus side, exports should be booming. Sadly, they aren’t. There are plenty of excuses explanations, but one stands out: British exporters have too much focus on slow-growing European economies and not enough on the whizzy emerging markets. The killer statistic is that the UK exports more to tiny troubled Ireland than to all the Brics put together. Read more

James Mackintosh

Benjamin Franklin always accepted the US constitution might be changed; “the only things we can be certain of are death and taxes,” he wrote to French scientist Jean-Baptiste Leroy (if Leroy had known about the planned new top rate of 75 per cent in France he’d surely have agreed).

Death is not really relevant to investors; you can’t take it with you, after all. But taxes are vital – and often ignored by those looking back at past returns.

This makes some charts from Stanhope Capital, which runs money for wealthy families and charities, particularly handy. Jonathan Bell at Stanhope looked back at past tax rates in the UK and calculated the returns needed merely to beat inflation, for a top-rate tax payer. Read more

James Mackintosh

Goldilocks is back! Goldilocks was the famous “not too hot, not too cold” economy which under US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was able to deliver rising shares without the Fed pouring cold porridge over asset prices in the form of rate hikes.

Today’s jobs data suggests exactly that can happen again, thanks to the oddity of the market and the central bank focusing on different measures. Read more