Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve has driven US investors into riskier assets by promising lower rates for longer as part of its assault on unemployment. James Mackintosh, investment editor, worries that markets are complacent about the speed with which unemployment is falling, and the risk of an early Fed policy tightening. Read more

John Authers

Is it more accurate to refer to QE∞ instead of QE3? Unlike the previous doses of US QE, this campaign of asset purchases has no official limit, and will carry on until the unemployment rate has improved “substantially” – a word that the Federal Reserve can define, and redefine, as it sees fit over the years ahead.

I have already argued that this should be regarded as stunningly aggressive. In the latest Note video, Gavyn Davies, a fellow FT blogger, agrees. The key point, he suggests, is that over the last year the Fed’s reaction function has changed. It is not just that the employment situation has worsened but also that, for whatever reason, it has decided to give the full employment part of its mandate greater emphasis than before. There are plenty of possible reasons for this, which we discuss in the video: Read more

James Mackintosh

The Federal Reserve has given the markets all it hoped for and more: unlimited quantitative easing (QE3), in the form of $40bn a month of mortgage bond purchases, an extension into 2015 of the zero-rate forecast, and a change in the reaction function to say the Fed won’t raise rates until an economic recovery is well under way.

Is this Ben Bernanke’s final shot? His own words suggest not. Here’s a handy checklist of what he’s done so far, and what could be to come, as set out in his 2002 speech on how to fight deflation. These are in the order he set them out in the speech, rather than the order in which they’ve been tried so far. Read more

James Mackintosh

The argument for gold is very simple: it is hard money at a time when every other major currency is being watered down by central bank money printing.

On that basis, Europeans should have been panic-buying gold this summer as the European Central Bank prepared its plan to hoover up peripheral country bonds (although it will try to “sterilise” the plan, taking in deposits in some form to keep net money issuance stable, even as its balance sheet expands). Read more