equities

Low interest rates suggest low equity returns – and even worse, shares can lose money over a lifetime. Scary charts after the jump.

 

Those hoping for a “great rotation” from bonds to stocks might start by looking for smaller rotations within the equity market. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says the signs are far from uniformly supportive of the bigger rotation.

One extra chart, before the video: monthly total returns on the US benchmark 10-year Treasury bond per month. January saw a loss of 1.94 per cent, including coupon payments, which isn’t great. But it is slightly less than last March’s loss, or October 2011, and pales in comparison with some of the monthly losses in the past. As the chart shows, this is far from solid evidence of the bond bubble bursting. 

Japan is the natural home of the bear, but its bull market from 2003-2007 looks very like the current US bull market. James Mackintosh, investment editor, looks at the parallels and considers what’s needed to keep the bulls running.

 

Several measures of sentiment suggest investors are becoming worryingly optimistic. Investment editor James Mackintosh says this is something which typically happens before the market drops back.

The valuation gap between European and US shares has narrowed to levels only seen a few times in the past decade. Is this justified? James Mackintosh, investment editor, says this suggests investors see a safer Europe while America’s economy turns European.