Merrill Lynch

James Mackintosh

Here’s the market reaction to the shutdown of (some of) the US government:

  • Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose 0.05 percentage points immediately
  • The dollar index fell 0.4 per cent immediately
  • US equities dropped 0.6 per cent in the build-up yesterday, but the fall was still less than the 0.73 per cent fall in developed world equities.
  • The e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 0.4 per cent since the shutdown took effect at midnight in Washington

All of which suggests that investors really aren’t that bothered. Here is conventional wisdom on why: 

John Authers

Cyclically-adjusted price/earnings multiples (CAPEs), as made famous by Yale’s Professor Robert Shiller, are growing inconvenient for the brokerage community.

Last week, BofA Merrill Lynch’s Savita Subramanian pointed out that of 15 popular measures of equity valuation, CAPE (which compares share prices to a 10-year moving average of real earnings) was the only one that made stocks look expensive. The list of valuations suggesting US stocks are either cheap or at fair value includes:

  • trailing p/e
  • forward consensus p/e
  • trailing normalised p/e
  • price/book
  • enterprise value/ebitda
  • forward PEG (p/e ratio divided by growth)
  • trailing PEG
  • price/operating cash flow
  • price/free cash flow
  • enterprise value/sales
  • market-based equity risk premium
  • normalised equity risk premium
  • S&P 500 in WTI oil terms
  • and S&P 500 in gold terms

CAPE is thus beginning to stick out like a sore thumb. As it has been showing that stocks are expensive throughout most of the current rally, there is now a widening attempt to discredit or ignore it. Merrill’s own complaint is typical:

The Shiller P/E, which is based on inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, currently suggests that stocks are overvalued. However, this metric
assumes that the normalized (cyclically-adjusted) EPS for the S&P 500 is today less than $70—well below even our recessionary scenario for EPS. The
methodology assumes that the last 10 years is a representative sample, but the most recent profits recession was the worst we have seen and was exacerbated by a high leverage ratio which has since been dramatically reduced. Assuming that this scenario is going to repeat itself is, we think, overly pessimistic

But is it? Earnings volatility has certainly been extreme over the last decade, and arguably unprecedented. But if anything that suggests that the measure – which grew famous from efforts to predict the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 and to show that the 2003-07 bull market was a “fools rally” – is more, not less, useful. That is the contention of Prof Shiller himself, and it is a reasonable one. More on this, with charts, and some comments from Prof Shiller, after the break. 

James Mackintosh

If you go down to the woods today, you won’t need a disguise: the bears are all at their annual picnic (OK, conference) in west London, led by uber-bear Albert Edwards of Société Générale.

He’s picked a good day to warn of looming disaster: yet another indicator suggests investor complacency is approaching danger levels thanks to the new year rally.

Short-term momentum indicators were flashing red in Europe last week, and even after falling back slightly remain very high.