There’s a basic formula for trading Abenomics:
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Americans have been wondering if the housing market is in a double bubble for a little while, since Professor Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller house price indices, raised the danger.
The real action has been in housebuilders, though. Their valuations, based on price to estimated book value, peaked in May above where they stood at the height of the property bubble in 2005/6. Prices look very much like the rebound bubble in the Nasdaq, in the Dow Jones Industrials in the late 1930s and in the Nikkei 225 (although it wasn’t quite so big). This chart shows the Nasdaq and Nikkei time-shifted so the peaks overlap with the 2005 peak in housebuilding shares:
I’ve circled the point where the rebound went wrong again: seven to eight years later for both Nasdaq and, less spectacularly, the Nikkei (the Dow’s second depression-era boom-bust came in 1937, also eight years after the original bubble).
The Nikkei 225 is down more than 7 per cent today, its 11th biggest daily fall since it was created in 1950. Explanations abound: the hawkish interpretation of Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress (although it can be read either way), the hawkish interpretation of the Fed minutes (ditto) and the surprisingly weak purchasing managers’ index from China, showing manufacturing shrinking slightly.
All these no doubt matter. But the real question is why markets chose to care today. China has been slowing for months, and while Fed-ology always moves prices, it was particularly hard to read anything much new into Wednesday’s comments.
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